Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q4 2025
December 22, 2025
Welcome to the Q4 2025 edition of the Ghost In The Machine
Welcome to the Q4 edition of the Ghost In The Machine as the curtains close on another tumultuous year in which trade and geopolitical tensions continue to create uncertainty and ambiguity, but are also vying with the hope of rapid technological advances and investment.
We examine the implications of a strategic shift in US Treasury Debt issuance for money market funds and the potential risks for overall financial market stability, and by extension US federal government financing. FX markets have long been a first adopter of technology, with each shift transforming how liquidity is sourced, priced, and delivered.
There is a gradual convergence and integration of the crypto into the FX world, both due to increasing institutional adoption, and via customer demands for multi-asset exchanges and platforms. Tangential to that is the transformative impact of digital wallets, going well beyond the realm of payments, creating a connected and protected digital society.
Technology is transforming ‘Middle Office’ functions, increasing oversight, simplifying processes, reducing risk and creating efficiencies, aided by automation and AI. ESG related regulation is no stranger to implementation delays, with the latest edition of ‘kicking the can down the road’ coming via way of a failure to agree on, and a delay to the IMO Net Zero Framework for shipping.
Soft commodities have been on a roller coaster ride, most notably cocoa and coffee, but sugar has also been buffeted both by trade tensions as well as a dramatic reassessment of supply estimates for the current season, so what is the outlook for key producing countries in 2026.
Dairy prices have also been hit by the threat of a ‘milk tsunami’ as well as the strength of the Euro, which will likely spill into livestock prices. There is also another look at the ‘perception reality divide’ in financial markets, specifically in the context of the AI investment boom.
Marc Ostwald
Chief Economist & Global Strategist
ADM Investor Services International Limited
Chief Economist & Global Strategist
ADM Investor Services International Limited
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
