Global Ag News For Dec 17.2025

TOP HEADLINES

China Stepping Up Soy Auctions as It Buys More Beans From US

(Bloomberg) — China is selling large volumes of soybeans from its state reserves, as it steps up purchases from the US to fulfill an apparent agreement between the two countries in late October.

Beijing often auctions soybeans to manage and rotate supplies from its substantial state reserves, but these are the first sales since it resumed buying from the US following the trade truce with Washington.

There have already been two auctions since last Thursday, with around 720,000 tons sold out of the more than 1 million tons on offer, according to official statements and Chinese consultancy Mysteel. Authorities will hold another auction for 550,000 tons on Friday.

Soybeans, mainly used for animal feed and cooking oil in China, have become a bellwether for the state of relations between the world’s two biggest economies since the summit in South Korea between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.

Chinese state firms started buying American soybeans in the days before the meeting, and had taken a total of 2.5 million tons by the middle of November. There have been more purchases since then, but the US government shutdown has delayed data on the latest total. Privately owned crushers, meanwhile, have largely steered clear of the beans, which still incur a 13% import tariff and remain unprofitable to process.

China is expected to buy at least 12 million tons of American soybeans by the end of February, according to the latest remarks from officials in Washington. Beijing has not officially confirmed those numbers, but has moved to reduce tariffs on the crop and lifted import bans on three US exporters. The cargoes usually take around a month to get to China, and large-scale storage will be required if they’re not immediately crushed.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 in SRW, up 1/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/4; Soybeans up 3/4; Soymeal up $1.00; Soyoil down 0.23.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 18 3/4 in SRW, down 12 3/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 3; Soybeans down 14 1/4; Soymeal up $1.50; Soyoil down 1.93.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 28 in SRW, down 22 1/4 in HRW, down 1/8 in HRS; Corn is down 10; Soybeans down 73 1/2; Soymeal down $17.10; Soyoil down 3.87.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 7.4% in SRW, down 9.7% in HRW, down 5.0% in HRS; Corn is down 4.5%; Soybeans up 6.5%; Soymeal down 1.4%; Soyoil up 21.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAR 26) Soybeans down 10 yuan; Soymeal up 3; Soyoil down 60; Palm oil down 96; Corn down 3 — Malaysian Palm is up 3.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 3 ringgit (+0.08%) at 3965.

There were changes in registrations (-32 Corn, -10 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 120 Oats; 9 Corn; 1,131 Soybeans; 810 Soyoil; 184 Soymeal; 23 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 16 were: SRW Wheat up 16,972 contracts, HRW Wheat up 4,519, Corn up 10,345, Soybeans down 18,524, Soymeal down 2,388, Soyoil up 3,245.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 16 DECEMBER 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: A cyclone later this week will bring a swath of rain/snow to the U.S. Midwest and Northern Plains states, but the outlook will otherwise remain very quiet for winter wheat areas until near the end of the month
• SOUTH AMERICA: Moderate to cool temperatures will prevail over most of Brazil into the foreseeable future to the benefit of most crops
• SOUTH ASIA: Heat risks will increase through the next 1-2 weeks over north/central India alongside dry conditions in an unfavorable outlook for wheat
• EAST ASIA: Warm and wet weather will prevail along the major winter wheat regions of China into late December, making for a very positive outlook
• TELECONNECTIONS: La Niña conditions strengthend slightly throughout November, and it is expected to peak in its intensity soon with weakening coming quickly in the new year

DRYNESS IN JANUARY MAY THREATEN SOUTH AMERICAN CORN AND SOYBEAN

What to Watch:

• Relatively cool and dry conditions are expected for most of South America in January
• Dryness could be a primary concern for corn and soybean in the most southern areas of Brazil and Argentinian Pampas
• December rains could reduce the risks in Mato Grosso, Paraguay, and northern Pampas
• The outlook is relatively neutral for key coffee and sugarcane regions

A U.S. THAW IS GETTING UNDERWAY AND WILL CARRY THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH BEFORE COLD RISKS RETURN

What to Watch:

• On the heels of a weekend cold air outbreak, widespread warmth will overtake the U.S. through the next couple weeks
• Aside from a cyclone later this week, quiet weather is in store for the U.S. into late December
• Upcoming warmth will bode well for U.S. winter wheat, with an eye on prospects for an early January cold snap

   

Brazil: A front will continue with enhanced showers across the south on Tuesday. Another front is forecast to move into the south early next week. Showers have been less intense across central Brazil over the last week, but the coverage has been good, which is still improving soil moisture. Those showers continue this week as well. Overall conditions continue to be either favorable or improving.

Argentina: A front brought scattered showers through the country Sunday and Monday, which brought some needed rain to some areas that were starting to dry out a bit. Some isolated showers may move through southern areas this week, but most areas will be dry until another front moves through this weekend. Forecasts have increased the rainfall for that front. And despite a drier stretch of weather recently, soil moisture is still largely favorable across most of the country, favorable for developing corn and soybeans.

Northern Plains: Warmer air is moving into the region. A system will move along the border on Wednesday into Thursday and bring through a few showers and a quick burst of colder air for Thursday. Another front will move through Friday and Saturday and the region will be in the way of the overall storm track near the border through next week. That may continue to bring through changing temperatures, but an overall warmer trend is occurring while the colder air is forecast to remain largely in Canada.

Central/Southern Plains: Warmer air is in place and will continue through Christmas with little exception, and could be record high next week. A front will sweep through with some briefly milder air and a few showers on Wednesday into Thursday, but drier and warmer conditions are largely expected for a little while longer. That is not a good combination for winter wheat, which is seeing soil moisture falling. It is a slow process in the winter, but will have detrimental effects if this keeps up over the season. Warmer air may awaken some wheat as well, which would reduce winter hardiness for when cold air inevitably returns.

Midwest: Temperatures continue to rise across the region for the next couple of days. A system will bring through some showers and another brief burst of colder temperatures on Thursday, initiating more lake-effect snow in the Great Lakes. Another system may do something a bit similar but with less cold air and showers this weekend. The region will be in the way of the overall storm track along the border through next week, but should be overall warmer with lighter showers through the end of the year. The warmer air should cause significant melting of snow and get that moisture into the soil column.

Delta: A few showers will move through on Wednesday and Thursday, but showers will be hard to come by as a general below-normal precipitation pattern continues. Water levels continue to be quite low, though some warmer air up north will melt some of the snowpack in the Midwest and give a little boost to the rivers as well. It just will not be enough and more precipitation is needed.

 

The player sheet for 12/16 had funds: net sellers of 5,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 1,000 corn, sellers of 4,500 soybeans, and sellers of 4,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: A South Korean flour mill group bought an estimated 20,800 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the U.S. in an international tender on Wednesday
• RICE PURCHASE: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. purchased an estimated 1,300 metric tons of rice to be sourced from Thailand in an international tender seeking up to 58,244 tons which closed on December 11
• FAILED WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which closed on Tuesday.

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 210,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, European traders said on Wednesday. The corn is sought in three consignments of 55,000 to 70,000 tons for arrival in South Korea in March and April 2026.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is December 17.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Wednesday. The deadline for the submission of price offers in the tender is December 23. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan made no purchase in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of wheat on Tuesday.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Dec. 12 are based on five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen higher than last week at 1.11m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 22.716m bbl vs 22.51m a week ago

 

LIVESTOCK SURVEY: US Cattle on Feed Placements Seen Down 8.2%

November placements onto feedlots seen falling y/y to 1.65m head, according to a Bloomberg survey of 11 analysts.

• That would be the lowest Nov. amount since 2015
• Estimates range from -15.6% to -1.7% y/y change
• Feedlot herd as of Dec. 1 seen falling by 1.7% y/y to 11.78m head
• November placements seen down 8.2% y/y
• Marketings seen falling 11.5% y/y

 

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Fall 2% Y/y So Far in Season to Dec. 14

The European Union’s soft-wheat exports in the season that began July 1 reached 10.5m tons as of Dec. 14, compared with about 10.8m tons in a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations include Morocco (2m tons), Saudi Arabia (824k tons) and Egypt (778k tons)
• Barley exports were 5m tons, up 135% y/y
• Corn imports totaled 7.5m tons, down 20% y/y

 

Argentina oilseed workers call strike over Milei labor reform

Argentina’s oilseed workers have called a 24-hour strike for next Thursday, as the FTCIODyARA union said on Tuesday it would join nationwide protests against President Javier Milei’s proposed labor reform.

The strike is expected to affect agro-export companies in one of the world’s largest food suppliers and drew criticism from industry chamber CIARA, which said past collective bargaining had “sealed social peace until mid-2026.”

The FTCIODyARA said in a separate statement that the strike would start at midnight and include work stoppages and demonstrations against the labor reform proposal Milei sent to Congress last week.

“The government presented a labor reform bill aimed at strengthening employers’ position and weakening that of workers,” the union said.

 

Ukrainian grain exports curtailed by Russian attacks, union says

Ukrainian wheat exports have been curbed as Russia’s recent heavy attacks on Black Sea ports and energy facilities have forced the shutdown of some grain export terminals, Ukrainian farmers’ union UAC said on Wednesday.

Ukraine is a major global wheat grower and exporter, shipping about 70% of its wheat harvest for export via the country’s Black Sea ports. Food exports account for the majority of Ukraine’s total exports.

Russia has increased attacks on the port hub in the southern Odesa region this month, leaving about a million households without power after one of the attacks.

UAC said in its weekly report that Ukraine had exported 359,150 metric tons of wheat by mid-December, out of 1 million tons contracted for export for the month.

The union said that some export terminals have halted operations and the port is operating at 20% of capacity.

“We see that for the second week in a row, one of the central ports has been unable to start up and operate normally,” UAC said.

“Traders have no idea what to do. It’s dangerous to store grain at the port, and logistics are not working properly – there are constant power outages and constant disruptions with locomotives.”

Ukrainian state railway Ukrzaliznytsia said last week that Russia had attacked the port of Pivdennyi in Odesa region as well as the rail infrastructure that delivers cargo to the port.

Analyst Barva Invest said this month that Ukraine’s maritime export terminals had reduced grain intake owing to constant Russian attacks.

Ukraine’s economy ministry said last week that the country’s wheat exports had fallen to 7.5 million tons so far in the 2025/26 July-June season, against 9.2 million tons for the same period of the previous season.

The ministry also said that Ukraine would not restrict wheat exports in 2025/26 because of a large harvest and low export rates at the beginning of the season.

 

Kazakhstan’s New Harvest Grain Exports Reach 3.4m Tons

Kazakhstan has exported 3.4m tons of grain from the new harvest so far, a 20% increase from the same period last year, vice minister of Agriculture Azat Sultanov says at a government meeting.

The export potential for the entire season is estimated at about 13m tons, he says

 

US EPA expects to finalize biofuel rules in first quarter of 2026

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency expects to finalize 2026 and 2027 biofuel blending mandates, which had originally been expected in late October, in the first quarter of next year.

The slowdown pushes one of the Trump administration’s most consequential energy policy choices into 2026. Without clarity on quotas, companies say they are forced to hold back on deals and delay spending decisions that shape output and margins.

Reuters reported earlier this week the decision would likely spill into next year, citing sources familiar with the matter.

Fuel makers, farmers and commodity traders need the rule to lock in supply contracts, hedge volatile crop and energy markets, and justify investments in new production capacity.

The mandates are set under the Renewable Fuel Standard, a law that requires billions of gallons of ethanol and other biofuels to be blended into the U.S. fuel pool each year .

The EPA said it expects to issue a final rule during the first quarter of 2026 after consultations with the White House Office of Management and Budget, a notice filed with the U.S Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit on December 15 showed.

A proposed rule issued earlier this year would have raised total renewable fuel requirements, significantly increasing targets for advanced biofuels and biomass-based diesel while also tightening rules on the use of imported biofuels.

Rival oil and biofuel interests have clashed over the details. Refiners want lower mandates with easier access to imports to lower costs, while biofuel producers advocate for larger blending volumes focused on domestic supply.

 

Malaysia Cuts Crude Palm Oil Export Tax Rate To 9.5% For January Shipments

Malaysia cut its export tax rate on crude palm oil, or CPO, to 9.5% for January shipments due to weaker crude palm oil prices, the federal government said Wednesday.

The tax rate is based on the reference price for CPO at 3,946.17 ringgit ($965.19) per ton for January, as compared to 4,206.38 ringgit set in December, Malaysian Palm Oil Board said in a statement.

Malaysia has a tiered CPO export tax structure ranging from 3% to a maximum of 10%, when CPO prices surpass 2,250 ringgit per ton.

The benchmark palm oil contract for March delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange last traded at 3,966 ringgit per ton, up three ringgit, or 0.1%.

 

Russian bank VTB to create agriculture giant from nationalised assets, CEO says

Russia’s second-largest bank VTB plans to create a large agricultural holding from nationalised assets it had bought in the southern regions in December 2024, VTB’s CEO Andrei Kostin told Reuters.

He said the new holding will focus on domestic processing of grains and other agricultural products and suggested that the company could be sold at a later stage.

“After all, we should develop high value-added products, not only processing oil but possibly grain as well,” Kostin said.

The assets were nationalised in 2023 after an arrest warrant was issued for its former owner Andrei Korovaiko and his business partner Arkady Chebanov, who were accused of corruption. Both are now living abroad. Korovaiko denies any wrongdoing, a lawyer for the businessman said.

The assets have been consolidated into a company, called Agrocomplex Labinski.

Labinski owns 240,000 hectares of land, producing grains, milk, sugar, and other agricultural products. The company says that it exports up to 400,000 metric tons of grains and oilseeds annually.

 

Favorable late-season weather boosts Canada wheat production

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 CANADA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 39.9 [38.5–40.5] MILLION TONS, UP 9.3% FROM LAST UPDATE

Adjustments to harvested area, based on the latest StatCan report and analysis of late-season satellite imagery and weather data, have led to an upward revision of Canada’s wheat production estimate to 39.9 million tons. This increase is supported by satellite imagery indicating healthy vegetation across key wheat-growing regions, with vegetation density at or above the long-term median during the late season. Reflecting better-than-expected crop conditions, the national yield estimate has been raised to 3.76 t/ha, near the upper end of our yield model range.

 

U.S. winter wheat enters dormancy with no immediate winterkill risks

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2026/27 U.S. WHEAT PRODUCTION: 51.7 [49.1–54.3] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

Outlooks for 2026/27 U.S. winter wheat planted area and production remain unchanged at 33.01 million acres and 36.6 million tons, respectively. As winter wheat remains dormant over the next few months, temperature and insulating snow cover are the key features to watch. While in the dormant stage, winter wheat typically is left unharmed with temperatures down to 0 °F. It becomes vulnerable, however, to cold damage when temperatures reach and stay below -10 °F for a significant period of time (as it can kill the submerged growing point resulting in winterkill). If snow cover (above 1 inch or so) is present these cold temperatures might not be able to penetrate the snow’s insulating qualities. Winterkill is not a common occurrence in U.S. winter wheat production regions, as a combination of extreme low temperatures and little (less than 1 inch) or absent snow cover is a rare event. While the winterkill risks appear to be low at the moment according to LSEG’s weather research team’s latest ENSO analysis, dryness risks remain well in play, warranting attention. Soil moisture levels are currently hovering near 6-year lows in key soft red winter (SRW) wheat states such as Illinois and Indiana, warranting close monitoring. On the other hand, most hard red winter (HRW) wheat states across the Plains maintain healthy soil moisture conditions, easing concerns.

 

 

 

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