Ivory Coast Arrivals Slip

COCOA

March Cocoa traded to its highest level since November 12 early Monday. News that Ivory Coast port arrivals last week were level with year ago and five-year average levels after being well ahead of them for the previous five weeks may have provided additional impetus for a rally. It may have also left traders thinking that 2025/26 crop has peaked. Arrivals totaled 85,000 metric tons for the week ending December 7, same as last year and in line with the five-year average. Cumulative arrivals since the marketing year began have reached 803,000 tons, down from 820,000 last year at this time and below the five year average for this date at 824,000. World Weather Inc. says Ivory Coast and Ghana rainfall could be greater than usual late this week and into the weekend. This would support production for later in the season, but it may hinder harvest in the near term. ICE stocks fell 820 bags on Friday to 1.682 million, the lowest since March 14. Stocks fell 29,143 bags last week.

COFFEE

March Coffee remains in a tight, consolidative range. Recent revisions higher for Brazil’s 2025 crop and steadily increasing ICE exchange stocks may be limiting upside potential, but the lifting of the tariffs on Brazilian coffee imports into the US may be providing consistent buying support as US suppliers look to rebuild inventories. ICE certified arabica stocks increased 8,029 bags on Friday to 426,533, their highest since November 5. Stocks increased 19,564 bags last week. A wetter trend in Brazil’s key growing region of Minas Gerais this week may ease some concerns for the upcoming crop after a recent dry spell. World Weather Inc. says some coffee areas of Vietnam will be impacted with rain in the coming week after relatively drier conditions over the weekend. The region has been plagued by too much rain in recent weeks. The worst of the damage skipped the major coffee growing regions, but it may have slowed harvest and caused some damage in insolated areas. Reuters reports that Uganda exported 685,720 bags compared of (mostly robusta) bean in October, up from 496,820 bags for the same period last year. Vietnam’s National Statistics Office said that nation exported 88,000 metric tons of (mostly robusta) coffee in November, up 39.1% from a year ago. Cumulative exports for the 2025 calendar year have reached 1.4 million tons, up 14.8% from the same period in 2024.

SUGAR

March Sugar edged higher early Monday following a modest setback on Friday. Strong production out of India and Thailand may be offset by increased focus on ethanol production from cane in Brazil at the expense of sugar output. Low sugar prices seem to be making ethanol from cane more attractive. News that Brazil exported 3.302 million metric tons of sugar in November, down from 3.390 million in November 2024 may also be lending support. Reuters reports that Indonesia’s finance minister told a parliamentary hearing on Monday that the nation will delay the implementation of an excise tax on sugary drinks until the economy has improve. This is a rare positive story for sugar consumption, which has been under pressure from the success of GLP-1 weight loss drugs. Thailand said it launched airstrikes into Cambodia, as fighting broke out in multiple areas along their border after both countries accused the other of breaching a ceasefire. Thailand is typically the world’s second largest sugar producer, and the resumption of hostilities could grab traders’ attention.

COTTON

March Cotton was higher early Monday, recovering a bit from a selloff late last week in the wake of a disappointing export sales report on Thursday. The next update will be released this morning and it will cover the week ending November 7. Thursday’s report (for the week ending October 30) came in at 89,450 bales, down from 167,742 the previous week. This followed five straight weeks where sales exceeded 150,000. As of October 30, cumulative sales had reached 44% of the USDA forecast for the 2025/26 marketing year versus a five-year average of 61% for this point in the season. World Weather Inc. says Australia’s cotton crop would benefit from rain in western, dryland, production areas where recent hot and dry conditions may have slowed some development. Eastern crop areas are suspected of being in mostly good shape.

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