Global Ag News For Nov 21.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Trump signs order to remove tariffs from Brazilian beef, coffee

• Tariff removal may lead to refunds for duties collected
• Brazil supplies a third of U.S. coffee, key beef supplier
• Rising food prices impact Trump’s approval ratings, poll shows

U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday removed his 40% tariffs on Brazilian food products, including beef, coffee, cocoa and fruits that were imposed in July to punish Brazil over the prosecution of its former president, Trump ally Jair Bolsonaro.

The move follows a similar order by the administration last Friday to remove tariffs on several agricultural products from other countries as the White House makes a U-turn on some tariffs that have increased the cost of food in the United States.

The order will affect Brazilian imports to the U.S. on or after November 13 and may require a refund of the duties collected on those goods while the tariffs were still being charged, according to the text of the order released by the White House.

Brazil normally supplies a third of the coffee used in the United States, the world’s largest coffee drinker, and has more recently become an important supplier of beef, particularly the type that is used to make burgers.

U.S. retail coffee prices rose as much as 40% this year due to the tariffs and other market factors such as weather-induced production shortfalls.

Rising food prices are a major factor behind Trump’s declining approval ratings, which have fallen to their lowest since his return to power, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found.

“You can expect some thousands of bags of Brazilian coffee that were sitting in bonded warehouses to start moving quickly to U.S. roasters,” said commodities analyst Judith Ganes, president of J. Ganes Consulting.

Bonded warehouses are storage facilities where importers can leave products without paying import duties.

Several importers stored products in those facilities after the heavy Brazilian tariffs were announced, while they waited for an eventual revision of the duties.

“The decision (to lift Brazil tariffs) shows the effectiveness of the trade negotiations,” said Brazilian beef industry group ABIEC, adding it will continue to work to increase its share in the market.

Trump’s executive order on Thursday did not mention the actions against Brazilian authorities involved in the prosecution and conviction of former President Jair Bolsonaro for plotting a coup to remain in power after losing the 2022 election.

Brazil’s Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes and his wife were sanctioned through the Global Magnitsky Act, while other justices and some ministers had their U.S. visas revoked.

Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said on Thursday he was glad that the 40% tariff was removed.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3 1/2 in SRW, down 3 1/2 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/4; Soybeans down 3 1/4; Soymeal up $1.00; Soyoil down 0.76.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 4 1/2 in SRW, down 10 3/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 7 1/4; Soybeans down 6 1/4; Soymeal down $5.80; Soyoil down 0.40.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 11 1/4 in SRW, down 16 1/2 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 7 1/2; Soybeans up 4; Soymeal down $4.90; Soyoil up 1.12.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 4.8% in SRW, down 9.8% in HRW, down 4.3% in HRS; Corn is down 7.1%; Soybeans up 12.0%; Soymeal up 2.4%; Soyoil up 25.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 26) Soybeans down 3 yuan; Soymeal up 4; Soyoil down 92; Palm oil down 136; Corn up 12 — Malaysian Palm is down 86.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 86 ringgit (-2.07%) at 4069.

There were changes in registrations (-122 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 1,131 Soybeans; 765 Soyoil; 338 Soymeal; 328 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 20 were: SRW Wheat down 1,445 contracts, HRW Wheat down 7,056, Corn up 1,503, Soybeans down 5,248, Soymeal up 904, Soyoil down 11,868.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 21 NOV 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Warm weather will continue across the U.S. during the next week. Moderate to heavy wet spells are expected across the Central U.S.
• SOUTH AMERICA: Pampas stays cool with below-normal rainfall, while Central Brazil experiences wet conditions and cooler temperatures.
• EUROPE: Europe is forecast to experience cooler-than-average temperatures over the coming week, with most regions seeing below-normal precipitation, while Southern Europe is expected to receive above-normal rainfall.
• ASIA: Asia will see mostly near-normal to cooler temperatures over the next 15 days, with mixed conditions in northern China. Above-normal rainfall is expected in southern India, South Korea, Japan, and some parts of Southeast Asia.
• Tropical Outlook: Tropical Cyclone Fina will affect Northern Australia, including the Top End of the Northern Territory and the Kimberley region of Western Australia.

 

DROUGHT RISKS ARE LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FROM SOUTHERN BRAZIL THROUGH ARGENTINA IN DECEMBER

What to Watch:

• Brazil could see heat/dryness risks focused largely on the South region where drought is already developing, while crops to the north should fare better from a zone of cool/wet conditions
• Argentina could experience a hot and dry month ahead, which will elevate drought risks to corn/soybeans
• Paraguay corn/soybeans are expected to experience hot and dry conditions that will be detrimental to development in December

 

Dry spells help winter wheat progress in Central Europe and the Black Sea

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

What to Watch:

• Dry spells across Europe and the Black Sea region
• Cool temperatures across Europe and warmth in the Black Sea region

 

Northern Plains: Some showers are moved through on Wednesday with a system passing through Canada. Drier conditions are forecast until a significant cold front moves through early next week. Along with chances for rain changing to snow, temperatures are forecast to take a massive dive behind that front and a much colder pattern is forecast to continue into December. That will shut down any winter wheat and start to freeze soils a bit early this year. Any areas with fieldwork to do have limited time in which to do so.

Central/Southern Plains: A strong system is moving through the region with widespread showers and thunderstorms through Friday. The rain will be welcome for winter wheat. Yet another system is forecast to move in early next week with more showers. Some areas of heavy rain should be favorable for building soil moisture and reducing drought. Some flooding will be possible though, especially across Texas. Though temperatures are will be quite warm into next week, a big blast of arctic air is forecast to move through behind next week’s system, though to what degree is still being worked out by models. Indications are that additional bursts of cold are likely for December that may come with some significant precipitation that includes snow, meaning that the window for getting fieldwork done is shutting down, particularly across the north.

Midwest: A bigger system will move through Thursday and Friday with more widespread precipitation, though mostly across the south. Another system is forecast for early next week that could bring through some significant precipitation as well. That could improve soil moisture and reduce some of the drought in the region. However, very cold air is forecast to push through behind it for Thanksgiving in the start of a much colder pattern going into December. The colder pattern will shut down opportunities for field work a little early.

Delta: Water levels continue to be low on the Mississippi River, causing transportation restrictions. Though we should see a system moving through Thursday and Friday with widespread showers and thunderstorms and another is forecast to do so early next week, that is unlikely to vastly improve water levels as drought surrounds the Delta region. They will provide at least temporary boosts, however.

Brazil: A front has stalled in the north. Showers will slowly build there back to the south through central Brazil through this weekend. Fronts moving up from Argentina are less likely to have significant precipitation with them over southern Brazil, which may be on the precipice of some worsening conditions for corn and soybeans as we get into the heart of the growing season in December.

Argentina: Soil moisture remains high for early this growing season. However, an overall drier pattern is starting to set up for the country. Fronts are still forecast to move through, and one will do so Thursday into Friday, but they are forecast to produce only patchy showers. It may take some time and be slow to occur, but soil moisture may slowly decline over the next few weeks if these fronts do not produce ample precipitation.

Europe: Scattered showers continue across much of the continent going into next week. Temperatures are colder now though and some of these showers will fall as snow, which could be heavy through this weekend from Hungary into southern Poland. Winter wheat that normally goes dormant over the winter will start on that journey for the rest of this month, particularly across the north.

Black Sea: A couple of systems are moving through this week, but have been producing limited showers, mostly across Ukraine and northwestern Russia. The same goes for next week as well. Dryness in southwestern Russia is still a major issue for the winter wheat crop. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year. Above-normal temperatures continue to delay the onset of dormancy.

 

The player sheet for 11/20 had funds: net sellers of 3,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 9,000 corn, sellers of 9,500 soybeans, sellers of 5,000 soymeal, and sellers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN, WHEAT SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 462,000 metric tons of soybeans and 132,000 tons of white wheat to China for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year.
• CORN PURCHASE: South Korean importer Major Feedmill Group (MFG) and its partner Cargill Agri Purina purchased an estimated 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn an international tender.
• CORN PURCHASE: The Busan section of the Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased around 66,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal on Wednesday without issuing an international tender.
• CORN PURCHASE: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) bought an estimated 195,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender seeking up to 207,000 tons.
• CORN & SOYMEAL PURCHASE: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL is thought to have purchased animal feed corn and soymeal in international tenders this week seeking around 120,000 metric tons of both corn and soymeal. The volume bought was not clear but some estimates were that three consignments each of about 60,000 tons of corn and up to three consignments each of about 60,000 tons of soymeal were bought.
• WHEAT TENDER: Saudi Arabia’s state grains buying agency General Food Security Authority (GFSA) said it issued an international tender to purchase around 300,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat. The deadline for submission of price offers is November 21, the agency said.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is November 26.

 

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase an estimated 78,744 tons of rice to be sourced from China, Thailand and also from unrestricted optional origins.
• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in the international tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice was estimated at $353.11 a metric ton CIF liner out.
• CORN, SOYMEAL TENDERS: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 120,000 tons of soymeal.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tons of rice.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Sold 924.4K Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 2.26M of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending Oct. 2.

• Corn sales rose to 2,260k tons vs 1,417k in previous week
• Soybean sales rose to 924k tons vs 871k in previous week
• All wheat sales rose to 888k tons vs 316k in previous week

 

US Export Sales of Soy, Corn and Wheat for Week Ending Oct. 2

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Oct. 2, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: Egypt with 238k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Japan with 680k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef for Week Ending Oct. 2

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Oct. 2, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 13.2k tons of the 32.7k tons of pork sold in the week
• South Korea led in beef purchases

 

USDA Confirms More Soybean Exports to China and First Wheat Sale

The US Department of Agriculture announced more sales of American soybeans to China along with the first known sales of wheat to the Asian nation.

The USDA in its daily export sales reporting system Thursday said China booked 462,000 tons of US soybeans and 132,000 tons of white wheat for delivery during the 2025-2026 marketing year. That brings the volume of soybeans sold to China since Oct. 30 to 1.8 million. Traders now are watching for further signs of buying.

Soybean futures fell in Chicago, after earlier gaining as much as 0.6%, though prices remained above $11 a bushel for the third straight week. Wheat also erased an earlier gain.

The recent purchases by China come after the US said Beijing committed to buying at least 87 million tons of US soybeans over the next several years, including 12 million tons this season. China has yet to confirm the details of the deal.

China for months had favored South American supplies of the oilseed, avoiding purchases from the US as it sought leverage in trade talks with Washington. The move added to pressure on US growers, who have been squeezed by inflation and the high cost of farming inputs.

The warming of ties between the US and China has boosted crop prices, with soybeans hovering near the highest levels since June 2024. However, the buying by importers in China is also coming as Brazil is raising a record soy harvest, while a stronger dollar makes US supplies relatively more expensive.

“The US dollar has moved to its highest level since May 12 this morning, reducing US competitiveness, which may mean prices need to come down more to encourage additional China purchases,” Hightower Report said in a note.

 

SovEcon Lifts Russia Wheat Crop Outlook on Siberia, Volga Yields

Russia’s 2025 wheat harvest is now seen at 88.6m tons, up from a previous estimate of 87.8m tons, agriculture consultancy SovEcon said in a note.

• That’s mainly due to record yields in Siberia, it says
• Smaller upgrades were also made for the Volga and Ural regions, where yields have remained strong through the end of the harvesting campaign
• “Most of the recent crop gains came from regions far from export ports, while the South – Russia’s main export hub – delivered another weak harvest, which remains a challenge for the 2025/26 campaign. As a result, Russian wheat shipments stayed below average until the past several weeks,” said Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon

 

IGC Increases Global Grain Stockpile Outlook to 619M Tons

Global grain stockpiles in the 2025-26 season are now seen at 619m tons, up from an October estimate of 618m tons, the International Grains Council said in a report.

• Increase primarily tied to an upgraded outlook for sorghum
• The wheat stockpile estimate was unchanged at 275m tons
• Corn inventories are now pegged at 300m tons, up from a previous estimate of 299m tons
• The soybean stockpile estimate was reduced to 77m tons from 79m tons

 

India’s 2024-25 Foodgrain Output Rises to Record High

India’s foodgrain production rose to a record 357.73 million tons in 2024-25, according to Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare.

• Foodgrain output recorded the biggest increase in the past decade, the release said
  • Rice production also climbed to an all-time high of 150.18 million ton
  • Makka – 43.49 million tonnes
  • Total Pulses – 25.68 million tonnes
  • Total Oilseeds – 42.99 million tonnes
• A large number of farmers are benefiting from assured procurement of pulses at minimum support prices, the statement added

 

Argentina soybean planting rises 12 percentage points, but flooding causes delays

Soybean planting for Argentina’s 2025/26 harvest rose 12 percentage points in recent days, covering 24.6% of the 17.6 million hectares planned, though flooding in Buenos Aires province is causing delays, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said on Thursday.

• Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of soybean oil and meal, but the oilseed area would fall from 18.4 million hectares sown in the previous harvest.
• Waterlogged soil in north-central and western Buenos Aires is preventing planting, with approximately 1.5 million hectares at risk of going unplanted due to flooding, a rural association said.
• As late-season corn planting begins, the crop reached 37.3% of the 7.8 million hectares designated to its harvest, with all planted fields in normal to excellent condition.
• The wheat harvest is 20.3% complete with above-average yields, after the Exchange raised its production estimate to a record 24 million tons.

 

Ukraine will reduce soybean area in 2026, deputy minister says 

Ukraine, which has imposed export duties on soybeans, will continue to reduce plantings of the crop in 2026 due to a decline in profitability, Deputy Economy Minister Taras Vysotskiy said late on Thursday.

In September, Ukraine introduced a 10% duty on soybean exports, partly to boost local oilseed processing and export of raw oils rather than seeds. But the export duty contributed to significant delays in shipments and a decline in domestic soybean prices.

Vysotskiy did not give specific figures on the reduction in soybean plantings next year. Ukraine sowed about 2.1 million hectares of soybeans in 2025, which was lower than in the previous year.

The economy ministry said on Friday that farmers had almost completed the soybean harvest, threshing 4.72 million metric tons of soybeans as of November 21.

Vysotskiy told an online conference that farmers from southern Ukrainian regions would increase the area under winter crops, such as winter wheat and barley, instead of oilseeds and corn.

High temperatures and drought have virtually destroyed the sunflower crop in southern Ukraine and reduced corn yields.

Ukraine is the world’s largest sunflower oil exporter.

 

Ukraine’s 2025 grain harvest at 50.9 million tons so far, ministry says

Ukrainian farmers had threshed about 50.9 million metric tons of grains from 10.2 million hectares, or 88% of the sown area, as of November 21, the economy ministry said on Friday.

The ministry gave no comparative data.

Ukraine plans to harvest about 56 million tons of grain in 2025, officials have said, the same volume as in 2024.

 

Western Australia Set for Best Wheat Crop in Three Years: GIWA

Western Australia is on track to harvest its biggest wheat crop in three years, according to an industry group, which raised its production forecast and predicted overall grain output could reach a record.

• Wheat production is estimated at 13.05m tons this year, up from 12.45m tons in 2024 and the highest level since 2022, a monthly report from the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia shows
  • That compares with a forecast last month of 12.63m tons
• NOTE: Western Australia is the country’s biggest wheat producer
• Overall grain production, including canola and barley, is forecast at 26.62m tons, up from 25.46m tons estimated in October
• “While the state’s harvest still has a long way to go, it is looking fairly certain that 2025 will be a record year for total grain tonnage”
• Other GIWA estimates:
  • Barley: 7.47m tons, compared with 7.27m tons in October
  • Canola: 4.3m tons, compared with 3.82m tons in October

 

Export duty on Russian wheat to increase 14.6% from Nov 26 to 232.3 rubles/tonne – Agriculture Ministry

The export duty on Russian wheat will be 232.3 rubles per tonne from November 26 compared to 202.7 rubles per tonne a week earlier, the Agriculture Ministry said.

It will therefore increase 14.6%.

The duty rates on barley and corn will remain at zero.

The rates were calculated based on indicative prices of $226.4 per tonne for wheat ($225.1 for the previous period), $207.4 for barley ($194.6) and $212.2 for corn ($212.6).

The new rates will be in effect until December 3 inclusive.

Russia introduced a grain damper mechanism on June 2, 2021, which stipulates floating duties on the export of wheat, corn and barley and the return of funds received from them to subsidize agricultural producers. The duties are calculated weekly from indicators based on the prices of export contracts registered on the Moscow Exchange. The duty is 70% of the difference between the reference and indicative prices.

The reference price for calculating the export duty on wheat is currently 18,000 rubles per tonne and the reference price on barley and corn is 17,875 rubles per tonne.

 

US Open to Dropping Tariffs on EU Beef, Lemons, Other Foods: FT

US agriculture undersecretary Luke Lindberg says Washington is open to removing tariffs on EU goods including beef, lemons and other foods, in an interview with the Financial Times.

• “I’m sure there could be others,” Lindberg says, referring to tariff exemptions
• “We do import certain proteins, maybe some beef from the EU that would fit into that category as well. Or some citruses”
• “The president’s committed to making sure that the grocery prices in America are affordable,” Lindberg says

 

Farm Bill Unlikely to Get House Vote Before 2026: Farm Brief

The farm bill that’s struggled to get off the ground for three years and counting appears nowhere near ready for prime time before 2026.

Key lawmakers have been tight-lipped about when exactly they plan to introduce legislative text since extending farm and food policy through the end of next September under the government funding deal passed this month.

Members of the House, which historically makes the first move to reauthorize a farm bill, are catching up on work that didn’t get done during a shutdown that lasted 43 days. With both chambers in town for the first three weeks of December, that doesn’t leave much room to progress elements of the package left out of a Republican tax cuts-and-spending law (Public Law 119-21) enacted in July.

“The clock’s starting to run down on us, it’s not that many legislative days left in 2025,” said Rep. Frank Lucas (R-Okla.), a House Agriculture Committee member and former chair.

“It remains to be seen just how legislatively focused we’re going to be for the remainder of this session of Congress,” Lucas added during a Wednesday interview.

“Right now, the priority is appropriations,” Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa) said Wednesday. The House Agriculture member said he hopes the chamber will pass a farm bill by mid-January but hasn’t yet received a clear timeline from the committee.

House Agriculture Committee Chair Glenn Thompson (R-Pa.) said he’s working with Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to determine when the package could get floor time for a vote, “probably after the first of the year.”

Before that can happen, Thompson’s panel must vote to advance the bill. He said staff-level negotiations to tweak the package from its May 2024 introduction continued through the government shutdown.

“I would love to get it out of committee before Christmas,” Thompson said. “I mean, that’s coming up quickly—we’ll see if we’re able to do that.”

In the Senate, which historically moves on a farm bill after the House advances its version, Senate Agriculture Chair John Boozman (R-Ark.) said Wednesday the one-year extension “takes the pressure off of us.”

Boozman and Thompson have said the legislative text they eventually introduce will largely resemble a Senate GOP framework and a House bill that never got a floor vote in 2024.

Policy priorities haven’t changed much for either leader. Boozman named farm loan limits as a key example of policy in need of updating given a variety of economic changes since lawmakers last overhauled the policy in 2018, while Thompson said his bill will retain a provision curtailing a California animal welfare law, despite bipartisan protest.

“Our intentions are to pass the farm bill as soon as possible,” Boozman concluded.

 

EU Nations Push for One-Year Delay to Deforestation Law

European Union nations are pushing for a one-year delay to a landmark law to curb deforestation across the world, while seeking to soften requirements that have raised concerns about its bureaucratic burden and impact on trade.

Representatives of member states reached a preliminary deal on amendments to the EU’s Deforestation Regulation at meeting in Brussels on Wednesday. The postponement they endorsed is twice as long as originally proposed by the European Commission, and removes the need for an extra six-month grace period put forward by the EU executive.

The EU regulation, known as EUDR, aims to tackle the felling of trees associated with imports into the bloc of key commodities from soybeans and coffee to cocoa and palm oil. But it’s faced criticism at home and abroad over its excessive burden and the lack of readiness of companies.

Unless amended by the end of the year, the law in its current form is set to take effect in late December, adding to the urgency for reaching a final deal.

The demands agreed by member states on Wednesday will be their negotiating position in talks with the European Parliament and commission on the final shape of the law. The parliament already agreed to fast-track the revision and will vote on its own stance next week.

In the negotiations, member states will also demand an extra six-month “cushion” for micro- and small operators, according to a statement published by the EU Council, which represents member states.

Cocoa futures in New York fell as much as 6.6% to $5,070 a ton after the news, and are trading at the lowest level since February 2024.

Pressure to delay the EUDR comes as countries push for the COP30 climate summit to deliver a road map away from fossil fuels. Deforestation in places like the Amazon and Congo basins is threatening the Earth’s ability to counteract planet-warming emissions of carbon dioxide.

As part of their negotiating position, member states will also seek further simplification of the EUDR. They want the commission to carry out a review by the end of April, assessing the impact of the regulatory and administrative burden on affected businesses.

 

US generated more biofuel blending credits in October, EPA says

The U.S. generated more renewable blending credits in October than September, data from the Environmental Protection Agency showed on Thursday.

• About 1.28 billion ethanol (D6) blending credits were generated in October, compared with about 1.23 billion in September, the data showed.
• Credits generated from biodiesel (D4) blending rose to 665 million in October from 660 million in the prior month, according to the data.
• The credits are used by oil refiners and importers to show compliance with EPA-mandated renewable blending quotas for petroleum-based fuels. They are generated with every gallon of biofuel produced.

 

 

 

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