Global Ag News For Nov 10.2025

TOP HEADLINES

China Raises 2025-26 Corn Production Estimate to Record High

China raised its corn production forecast for 2025-26 to 300 million tons, the highest level since records began in 1949, according to a monthly report released by the country’s agriculture ministry.

• Output estimate increased due to improved yields, the China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report shows
  • Forecast 1.3% higher than prediction made last month, despite heavy rain disrupting growth in parts of northern China
• Soybean output estimate trimmed slightly to 20.9 million tons after bad weather hit crops in parts of northern China and some southern areas
• Still, yields in the top producing northeastern region remain high
• Estimate for cotton output raised to 6.6 million tons following good weather conditions that increased yields
• NOTE: The 2025-26 marketing year starts in Oct. and ends in Sept.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 5 in SRW, up 4 3/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/2; Soybeans up 5 1/4; Soymeal up $0.40; Soyoil up 0.13.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 10 3/4 in SRW, down 7 3/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 5 1/2; Soybeans down 12; Soymeal down $3.30; Soyoil down 0.02.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 1 1/4 in SRW, down 1/2 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 2 3/4; Soybeans up 7; Soymeal down $4.10; Soyoil up 1.13.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 3.4% in SRW, down 6.3% in HRW, down 6.5% in HRS; Corn is down 6.5%; Soybeans up 11.4%; Soymeal up 3.2%; Soyoil up 25.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 26) Soybeans down 11 yuan; Soymeal unchanged; Soyoil up 40; Palm oil down 10; Corn up 6 — Malaysian Palm is up 2.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 2 ringgit (+0.05%) at 4111.

There were changes in registrations (62 Soybeans). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 1,134 Soybeans; 765 Soyoil; 338 Soymeal; 470 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 7 were: SRW Wheat down 20,481 contracts, HRW Wheat down 4,065, Corn down 10,578, Soybeans up 13,624, Soymeal down 3,469, Soyoil up 8,134.

 

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF SOUTH AMERICA INTO MID-NOVEMBER BEFORE A WARMING TREND ARRIVES

What to Watch:

• After a cool week, Argentina will slowly warm into late November while remaining dry, which will facilitate corn/soybean plantings
• Upcoming Brazil rains will benefit coffee/sugarcane development, while slowing corn/soybean plantings in the South region
• Moderate weather is in store for Paraguay through the next couple weeks, a positive trend for corn/soybean plantings

Northern Plains: Cold air moved into the region over the weekend, but is quickly moving out early this week. A system will move in with some showers Friday or this weekend and the storm frequency is forecast to increase next week with several moving through. With temperatures falling this weekend, it could mean some areas of snow next week.

Central/Southern Plains: Some showers went through Nebraska over the weekend, but most areas stayed dry while cold temperatures descended through the region. Temperatures will quickly rise on Monday night with above normal temperatures this week. A system will move in Friday or more likely this weekend. Models are unsure of its development, but could mean widespread precipitation and strong winds. More systems will be possible afterward for the rest of the month as the pattern gets a bit more active.

Midwest: A system went through on Saturday and has pulled down some significantly cold air on Sunday, leading to areas of lake-effect snow that will extend through Monday. Temperatures will then quickly rise for the rest of the week, especially across the west. A system moving through Canada may bring some light showers to Michigan on Wednesday. Otherwise, the region will be drier until possibly this weekend, as models try to figure out how to develop a system across the middle of the country.

Delta: Water levels continue to be low on the Mississippi River, causing transportation restrictions. The region needs a more active weather pattern to lift water levels again. No significant precipitation is forecast this week, but the pattern may become more active starting this weekend. We may not see enough precipitation to significantly raise water levels this month, but may be the start of something that is more favorable over the winter.

Brazil: A front moved up into the country this weekend and brought widespread showers and thunderstorms. The front is settling into central and northern Brazil where showers will continue this week. Another front will move into the country on Wednesday and is forecast to produce quite a bit of rain as well. With this front lifting northward into central Brazil late this week, that could be the start of some drier-than-normal conditions for southern Brazil after a very wet start to the growing season.

Argentina: A front lifted north out of the country this weekend, bringing through some cooler temperatures but no frost. Soil moisture is still really good across much of the country. Another front will bring showers through on Tuesday and Wednesday, but the pattern may start to get drier afterward, with models insistent on less frequent frontal passages, or at least fronts with less rainfall potential. If the heat can start to increase as well, we could see a big turnaround in weather conditions for corn and soybeans going forward. The winter wheat crop has enjoyed enough good weather to produce a good crop, though the frequent rain has increased disease pressure.

Europe: Scattered showers went across southern areas this weekend and continue in the southeast early this week as a system leaves. Limited showers have also moved through western areas and continue in a couple of waves this week as well. Weather conditions are still relatively favorable for winter wheat establishment throughout much of the continent.

Black Sea: Showers in October improved soil moisture somewhat throughout the region, but eastern areas are still dealing with deficits and drought for winter wheat establishment. A system will bring through limited showers early this week, but not enough to turn around the situation for those areas in a deficit. Temperatures are still above normal this week, delaying dormancy for northern areas that should be going dormant this time of year. With the limited soil moisture around, wheat is growing in poor soil moisture and dormancy would actually be favored. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year.

Australia: Limited showers went through eastern areas over the weekend, but many areas stayed dry. Drier conditions are favored for most of the week, but a system moving through eastern areas late this week could bring scattered showers. Mixed conditions are still found across the country. With winter wheat and canola continuing to mature and harvest beginning, there is little time for rain to be beneficial. After the harvest, cotton and sorghum planting will begin, but they need more rainfall.

China: Overall conditions for the remaining corn and soybean harvest in northeast China and winter wheat and canola establishment in central China are favorable, though heavy rain in early October may have caused issues. Southern areas have been having issues with dryness, which may affect sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops.

 

The player sheet for 11/7 had funds: net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 2,000 corn, sellers of 4,000 soybeans, buyers of 3,000 soymeal, and buyers of 2,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT SALE: A South Korean flour mill group bought an estimated 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Friday.
• BARLEY SALE: Tunisia’s state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 75,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender on Friday.

PENDING TENDERS

• BARLEY TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to buy a nominal 50,000 metric tons of animal feed barley to be sourced from optional origins
• RICE TENDERS: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender seeking 50,000 tons of rice with price offers to be submitted on November 3.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase an estimated 78,744 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China, Thailand and also from unrestricted optional origins
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice

 

 

 

TODAY

US EPA approves 14 small refinery biofuel waivers

The Environmental Protection Agency said on Friday it approved 14 requests from small refineries for full or partial exemptions to the nation’s biofuel blending mandates, drawing criticism from a top U.S. biofuel trade group.

The decisions effectively clear the remainder of the agency’s huge backlog of such requests that had built up under former President Joe Biden’s administration. The EPA had approved 140 petitions in part or in full earlier this year, and denied just 28, leaving just a handful from previous years remaining under review.

Under the Renewable Fuel Standard, refiners are required to blend billions of gallons of ethanol and other biofuels into the nation’s fuel pool each year. But small refiners can seek exemptions if they show the obligations would cause them significant financial hardship.

The waivers have been a lightning rod of contention between oil refiners who want to avoid costly blending obligations and biofuel advocates concerned that they eat into their market.

Under Friday’s decision, two applications were granted 100% exemptions, and 12 were granted 50% exemptions.

The Renewable Fuels Association, a biofuel industry trade group, criticized the waivers as harmful to farmers.

“Today, EPA created even more uncertainty and confusion in the renewable fuel and agriculture markets, which are already under immense pressure from record corn and soybean harvests this fall,” RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper said.

The agency now has 15 pending applications, including 12 for the 2025 compliance year and three for previous years.

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Soybean meal exports hit a record in the partial of this year

Brazilian consumers are willing to purchase soybean meal. The demand from abroad is also firm, especially from new countries and/or destinations that are not traditional buyers, a scenario that keeps a good performance of exports.

Data from Secex indicate that Brazil shipped 19.6 million tons of soy meal from January to October this year, a record for the period. Brazil has increased sales to Spain (1.58 million tons), Denmark (706.06 thousand tons) and Bangladesh (544.34 thousand tons).

In October alone, Brazil exported 2.17 million tons of soybean meal, 5% more than in September and the highest since May this year. However, comparing to the same month last year, shipments dropped 5.4%.

In the spot market, on the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, prices for soybean meal moved up 0.8% comparing October 30 and November 6.

Concerning soybean oil, Brazil shipped 82.51 thousand tons in October, upping 42.5% against September, but moving down 12.8% compared to one year ago – data from Secex. In the accumulated of 2025, exports totaled 1.19 million tons, 15.5% more than in the same period last year.

In Brazil, the pace of soy oil trades is slow. The Brazilian value closed at BRL 7,231.40 per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on Nov. 6, for a decrease of 1% from Oct. 30 to Nov. 6.

SOYBEAN – The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) downed 0.7% from October 30 to November 6, closing at BRL 139.31 per 60-kg bag on Nov. 6. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) decreased 0.2% in the same comparison, to close at BRL 133.614 per 60-kg bag. On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices upped 0.3% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 0.2% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers).

In the partial of 2025, Brazil shipped 100.6 million tons of soybeans, upping 6.7% compared to that verified in the same period of 2024. From this amount, 78.8 million tons were sold to China. In October, exports totaled 6.7 million tons, 8.3% less than in the month before, but a record for the month. China received 91.6% of this amount (6.2 million tons).

 

CORN/CEPEA: Supply is limited; prices are firm

Producers continue focused on the summer crop planting in Brazil – in some areas, the rainfall has concerned players. As for trades, sellers have prioritized contracts and expect new price rises to negotiate in the spot market again.

Despite the fact that sellers are away from closing trades, the upward trend has been limited by the fact that purchasers are also away from the market. Buyers claim to have enough inventories for the short-term, and are focused on the record production this season and on the possibility that sellers may need to open room at warehouses and/or to make cash flow.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn prices rose 0.9% between October 30 and November 6, to close at BRL 66.85 per 60-kg bag on Nov. 6, the highest value since late June this year, in nominal terms. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, in the same period, corn values moved up 1.1% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 0.9% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers).

In October, Brazilian corn shipments totaled 6.5 million tons, 14% less than in September, but only 1.5% above that verified in October/24. In the accumulated of 2025, exports totaled 29.82 million tons, downing 3.2% against the volume registered in the same period last year.

Data from Cepea indicate that the average price in Paranaguá (PR) and at the port of Santos (SP) in early November are 2.7% and 1.3%, respectively above those in October.

 

Malaysia Palm Oil Stockpiles Swell After Output Hits Decade-High

Malaysia’s palm oil inventories rose more-than-expected in October after production jumped to the highest level in ten years.

Output surged 11% from a month earlier to 2.04 million tons, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board reported on Monday. That’s the highest level since August 2015 and more than the increase predicted in a Bloomberg survey last week.

The surge led to stockpiles swelling for an eighth straight month to 2.46 million tons, according to the board, the highest level since April 2019. That compares with 2.44 million tons forecast in the survey. Malaysia is the world second-biggest grower, while Indonesia is the largest.

Still, a higher than anticipated jump in exports helped to prevent a bigger gain in stockpiles. Shipments rose 19% from a month earlier to 1.69 million tons, compared with 1.47 million forecast in the Bloomberg poll.

Strong yields in eastern Malaysia underpinned higher production, but output growth is expected to taper going forward, said Paramalingam Supramaniam, a director at brokerage Pelindung Bestari Sdn. The gain in exports signals a “recent slump in palm prices had helped create demand,” he added.

“It’s important that Malaysian exports remain robust for the market to remain resilient at current price levels,” Supramaniam said.

 

Malaysia Oct. Palm Oil Stockpiles Rise to 2.464m Tons: MPOB

Malaysia’s palm oil stockpiles rose to 2.464m tons in October from revised 2.360m tons in September, according to Malaysian Palm Oil Board.

• Palm oil production rose to 2.044m tons from revised 1.841m tons in September
• Palm oil exports rose to 1.693m tons from revised 1.428m tons in September

 

Gates Foundation pledges $1.4 billion to help farmers adapt to extreme weather

• Climate resilience a focus of COP30 talks in Brazil
• Biofertilisers, soil health mapping among innovations backed
• Follows memo from billionaire Gates on climate pivot

Billionaire Bill Gates’ foundation will spend at least $1.4 billion over the next four years to help farmers in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia access technologies for adapting to extreme weather, the organization’s CEO told Reuters.

Speaking ahead of next week’s COP30 climate summit in Brazil,Mark Suzman, head of the Gates Foundation, said the funding would go toward innovations like mapping soil health and biofertilisers that use microorganisms rather than chemicals to promote plant growth.

Gates called last week for a pivot in climate strategy away from focusing on emissions targets and toward helping the poor, who are increasingly bearing the brunt of erratic weather and other climate extremes.

“These are the people who have contributed such a minimal fraction to the greenhouse gas emission that is causing climate change, but they are the most affected because those climate impacts actually hit them in terms of their ability to feed themselves and their families,” Suzman told Reuters in an interview before the funding was announced.

Noting that climate-fuelled weather extremes are posing an increasing threat to crop yields and food security, the United Nations has urged more protection for agriculture as global warming intensifies.

A report by more than 20 organizations including consultants Systemiq found that crop resilience was one of the most impactful areas of investment. The report, released on Tuesday, said there was a widespread need for climate-resilient crop varieties, improved weather forecasts and innovations such as AI-enabled mapping and guidance.

FARMING TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE FUTURE

The International Potato Center, one of the organizations to previously benefit from Gates Foundation funding, unveiled on Thursday a newly cultivated variety of potato that is resistant to blight, a disease that is spreading to higher altitudes as global temperatures rise.

“This new potato was developed in Peru by identifying wild potatoes with resistance to the disease and incorporating this resistance into cultivated varieties,” said one of the company’s researchers, Thiago Mendes.

Another recipient, TomorrowNow, sends weather updates by text message to farmers in African countries including Kenya and Rwanda, helping to prevent them wasting seeds and supplies by planting or harvesting at the best times, CEO Wanjeri Mbugua told Reuters.

Suzman said there was robust research and development for agricultural solutions, but that the goal for the world should be to deliver those solutions to the world’s poorest.

“The jury is still out on if we’re going to see that,” he said.

 

 

 

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