Written Commentary
ADM Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results
November 4, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
US government in 41st day of shutdown but there is talk of progress in negotiations to end shutdown. Grains are higher. US stocks are higher. USD is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. Higher Gold despite surge in Oct US layoffs and weakening consumers confidence. Russia continues to bomb Ukraine infrastructure.
According to Lance Honig, head of NASS, the upcoming November 14 USDA WASDE will be survey based on normal collection procedures and his team has been collecting data during the shutdown.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 11.22. SX deliveries were 76. ADM stopped 56. Market up on hopes China buying US soybeans. This week, attention will be on Fridays USDA report. Some feel lower US crop could be matched by lower exports unless USDA is forced to show increase China demand. US 24/25 soybean carryout will be 316 vs USDA Sep est of 330. This due to lower Sep 1 stocks est and resulting drop in residual. US 25/26 could be near 430 mil bu with lower exports offset lower crop. China said that if US soybeans are cheaper and higher quality buying US may be considered. Brazil soybeans are cheaper than US through July.
CORN
CH is near 4.44. Corn futures following soybeans. Brazil and Argentina weather remains favorable for crops. Most look for US corn yield near 183 vs StoneX 186 and S/P Global 185.5. US 24/25 corn carryout will be 1,532 mil bu vs USDA 1,325. This due to higher Sep 1 stocks est and resulting drop in feed/residual. Some est US 25/26 carryout at 2,425 mil bu. Higher carryin could offset lower crop.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.47. KWH is near 5.36. MWH is near 5.76. US 25/26 wheat carryout could be closer to 880 mil bu vs USDA 844. This due to higher supply offset higher exports. Some est US 26/27 carryout at 853 mil bu. Increase carryin offset by lower acres, yield and exports. USDA should increase Russia, Argentina, Australia and Canada crops and lower EU exports.
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