Written Commentary
ADM Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results
November 4, 2025
CRUDE OIL
December Crude Oil traded inside yesterday’s range overnight, perhaps gaining support from news that China’s crude imports rose 8.2% in October from a year earlier. However, floating oil storage in the Asia-Pacific is estimated to have reached a three-year high of 53 million barrels as of the end of October, as sanctions on crude from Russia, and Iran and Venezuela have slowed the intake by refiners in China and India. This leaves an overhang over the market that could limit upward gains, despite the recent US sanctions on Russian crude oil producers. The rapid build-up in oil supply has pushed sanctioned crude prices to wide discounts relative to other blends, and this week Saudi Arabia lowered its prices for Asian buyers in December.
PRODUCTS
Product prices extended their recent rallies overnight, with RBOB trading to its highest level since the June 23 peak and ULSD pushing though high from that day. New flight reductions at major US airports will reduce jet fuel demand over the near term, but it could support gasoline and diesel usage as travelers hay have to take to the roads (cars and trains and busses) this holiday season.
NATURAL GAS
January Natural Gas is approaching the 200-day moving average, which it has not been above since July. The market has been supported off a resurgence in US LNG exports. LSEG reports that as of yesterday, the average amount of gas flowing to the eight big US LNG export plants had risen to 17.4 bcfd so far for November, up from a record 16.6 bcfd in October.
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