Written Commentary
ADM Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results
November 4, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
US government in 36th day of partial shutdown. Senate leaders optimistic about an end but not sure when. Grains are mixed. US stocks are mixed. USD is marginally lower but near season highs. Crude is higher and near $61. Gold is higher. US Supreme Court to hear arguments on Trump tariffs.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 11.32. SF-SH narrowed to -13. SX deliveries were 5. ADM stopper. On Nov 14 some feel lower US crop could be matched by lower exports unless USDA is forced to show increase China demand. BOF is near 50 cents. Brazil and Argentina weather remains favorable for crops. China quiet in Brazil. Dalian soybean soymeal lower with negative crush margins, Dalian vegoil lower and near recent lows. S/P Global increased Brazil 24/25 soybean crop 1.5 mmt to 172.0, left 25/26 crop at 178.5.
CORN
CH is near 4.45. US remains competitive to most destinations. Most look for US corn yield near 183 vs StoneX 186 and S/P Global 185.5. Brazil and Argentina weather remains favorable for crops. Increase logistic challenges is slowing Ukraine grain movement to ports. Ukraine exports from July near 1.9 mmt vs 5.15 last year. S/P Global est Brazil 24/25 corn crop up .5 mmt to 141.0, 25/26 up 6 mmt to 145.0. They lowered Argentina 25/26 corn crop 1.5 mmt to 56.5. Some could see US farmer planting 5-7 million less corn acres in 2026.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.60. KWH is near 5.46. KWZ-KWH spread narrowed into -8. MWH is near 5.75. Wheat rallied on rumors of China interest in US white and HRS wheat. Australia and Canada are cheaper. Recent rally in wheat futures has made US wheat exports less competitive. S/P Global increased Argentina wheat crop 1.7 mmt to 23.5 mmt. They increased Russia wheat crop 1.7 mmt to 88.2. They also increased Canada wheat crop 1.5 mmt to 38.7. EU wheat exports are 9.2 mmt or up 6 percent from ly.
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