Global Ag News For Nov 4.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Australia’s First Canola Cargo to China in Years May Depart Soon

Australia is set to ship its first canola to China in five years, with a vessel hauling a trial cargo of the oilseed expected to depart for Qingdao in less than a week.

The bulk carrier Armonia A is due to dock in Esperance in the state of Western Australia on Wednesday, according to a loading schedule from exporter CBH Grain Pty Ltd., where it will take on a cargo of about 60,000 tons of canola.

The vessel will then head for the port of Qingdao in China’s northeast, according to a shipping manifest on Southern Ports’ website. The carrier will depart from Australia on either Friday or Saturday.

At least three trial cargoes of the oilseed have been booked by China for the fourth quarter, marking the first shipments since Australia was shut out of the market in 2020 over phytosanitary concerns. According to the Australian agriculture department’s website, the canola trial is underway, with a view to supplying cargoes containing less than 1% of “non-seed material.”

The trial follows a souring in relations between China and Canada, the oilseed’s top exporter. Prior to their dispute, almost all of the 6.39 million tons of canola imported by China in 2024 came from Canada.

A spokesperson for Australia’s agriculture department said the government “negotiates improvements to conditions for agricultural trade with all trading partners, including China.”

The chief executive officer of export lobby Grain Trade Australia, Pat O’Shannassy, said a successful trial would be a significant milestone. “But we don’t want to be getting ahead of ourselves,” he said. “There’s still a trial that needs to meet whatever criteria has been established.”

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 2 3/4 in SRW, up 1/2 in HRW, down 1 in HRS; Corn is down 1 3/4; Soybeans down 6 3/4; Soymeal down $0.80; Soyoil down 0.14.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 12 1/4 in SRW, up 7 3/4 in HRW, unchanged in HRS; Corn is up 1; Soybeans up 12 1/4; Soymeal down $1.60; Soyoil up 1.02.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 17 1/4 in SRW, up 12 1/4 in HRW, up 12 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1/2; Soybeans up 32 1/4; Soymeal up $13.50; Soyoil down 0.56.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 1.0% in SRW, down 4.8% in HRW, down 6.5% in HRS; Corn is down 5.7%; Soybeans up 11.5%; Soymeal up 4.0%; Soyoil up 24.9%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 26) Soybeans down 16 yuan; Soymeal down 8; Soyoil up 34; Palm oil down 38; Corn up 3 — Malaysian Palm is up 28.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 28 ringgit (+0.68%) at 4143.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 715 Soybeans; 765 Soyoil; 338 Soymeal; 470 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 3 were: SRW Wheat down 1,142 contracts, HRW Wheat down 9,386, Corn up 4,760, Soybeans up 9,867, Soymeal up 786, Soyoil down 2,718.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 04 NOV 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Warm weather is expected across U.S. over the next 15 days. The western states are expected to receive above-normal rainfall, while most other regions may experience below-normal precipitation.
• SOUTH AMERICA: Pampas stays cool with below-normal rainfall, while Brazil experiences wet conditions and cooler temperatures.
• EUROPE: Europe will experience warm weather this week, with below-average rainfall is expected across Central Europe over the next 15 days.
• ASIA: Asia will see mostly near-normal to cool conditions, with brief warmth over north China during the next 15-day outlook. Moderate to heavy rain is likely in Southeast Asia during the next 15-day period.
• TROPICS: Typhoon Kalmaegi landfall in Central Philippines and Coastal Vietnam

 

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS FORECAST FOR CROP REGIONS IN ARGENTINA AND SOUTHERN BRAZIL

What to Watch:

• Another significant wet spell is expected at the end of this week across Argentinian Pampas, threatening mature wheat crop and spring crop plantings
• Rains in the southern Brazil may delay plantings, while conditions remain favorable in Central West

 

Brazil Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

Brazil Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Friday.

Argentina Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires: Scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday-Friday.

Argentina La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires: Scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday-Friday.

Northern Plains: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday. Outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday, above normal Tuesday-Wednesday. 

Midwest West: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Friday.

Midwest East: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers north Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures near normal Saturday, below normal Sunday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

 

The player sheet for 11/3 had funds: net buyers of 6,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 4,000 corn, buyers of 14,000 soybeans, sellers of 3,000 soymeal, and buyers of 7,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN, SOYMEAL TENDERS: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 120,000 tons of soymeal
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.
• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in the tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice, which closed on Monday, was estimated at $356.78 a metric ton CIF liner out.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• RICE TENDERS: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender seeking 50,000 tons of rice with price offers to be submitted on November 3. Bangladesh issued another tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice with price offers due on November 6.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal-feed barley.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase an estimated 78,744 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China, Thailand and also from unrestricted optional origins.

 

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 1.669m Tons of Corn for Export, 965k of Soybeans

In week ending Oct. 30, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Corn: 1,669k tons vs 1,242k the previous wk, 800k a yr ago
• Wheat: 350k tons vs 269k the previous wk, 218k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 965k tons vs 1,161k the previous wk, 2,313k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Oct. 30

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Oct. 30 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for Egypt-bound shipments made up 234k tons of the 965k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, and also led in wheat

 

CROP SURVEY: US Corn Harvest Seen 85% Complete, Soybeans 91%

The US corn harvest seen advancing to 85% complete in the week ending Nov. 2, according to the average in a Bloomberg News survey of as many as 13 analysts.

• This compares to 91% complete last year at this time
• Soybean harvest seen at 91% complete vs 94% complete last season
• The USDA has suspended publication of its weekly Crop Progress and Conditions report due to the federal government shutdown

 

Brazil Soybean Planting 47% Completed as of Oct. 30: AgRural

Planting of Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop reached 47% of the estimated area as of Oct. 30, compared with 36% a week earlier and 54% a year ago, according to an emailed report from consulting firm AgRural.

• Progress slowed during the week due to irregular rainfall in the Cerrado region
  • “Although replanting cases are still isolated, they may increase if the combination of irregular rainfall and heat continues to prevail in the coming days:” AgRural
• Planting of the summer corn crop in Brazil’s Center-South region was 60% completed as of Oct. 30, up from 55% a week earlier and 59% a year ago

 

Chinese buyers purchase Brazilian soybeans as prices ease over US-China trade thaw

• Trade war truce expected to lead to US sales to China
• Brazilian soybeans now cheaper than US supplies, reversing trend
• Traders still waiting for Beijing to remove tariffs

Chinese soybean importers have stepped up purchases of Brazilian cargoes in recent days as South American prices eased on expectations a U.S.-China trade deal will lead to a resumption of U.S. sales to the world’s largest soybean importer.

Buyers have booked 10 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans for December shipment and 10 for March-July with South American prices now quoted below offers being made for U.S. cargoes, three traders said on Monday.

Brazilian soybeans had traded at higher prices than U.S. supplies in recent weeks as steep Chinese tariffs curbed demand for U.S. beans.

“Brazil is now cheaper than U.S. Gulf, and buyers are taking this opportunity to book cargoes,” said a trader at an international company that runs oilseed processing plants in China. “We are seeing increased demand for Brazilian beans since last week.”

CHINA TO RAMP UP FARM TRADE WITH US UNDER NEW AGREEMENT

Beijing agreed to expand farm trade with Washington after U.S. President Donald Trump met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea last week.

The White House subsequently released details of the agreement revealing China will purchase at least 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in the final two months of 2025 and at least 25 million tons in each of the next three years.

The market is now awaiting further announcements from Chinese authorities on potential reductions in import tariffs on U.S. agricultural products.

“We have heard from the U.S. side but nothing much has come from China,” said a second trader at a global trading company. “We cannot take trading decisions until China says it has removed the tariff on U.S. soybeans.”

China’s state-owned COFCO made the country’s first purchases from this year’s U.S. harvest last week, buying three cargoes.

Brazilian beans for December shipment are quoted at a premium of $2.25-$2.30 over the January Chicago contract SF26, as compared with $2.40 per bushel being offered for U.S. beans to be shipped from U.S. Gulf Coast, traders said.

Chicago soybean futures gained almost 1% on Monday, with prices climbing to a 15-month high as China’s return to the U.S. market continued to buoy the market.

 

Palm Oil to Stay Above 4,000 Rgt/Ton in Next 3 Months: IOI

Malaysian palm oil output seen at 19.3m-19.6m tons in 2025, IOI Chief Executive Officer Lee Yeow Chor said at a press conference in Kuala Lumpur following the company’s AGM.

• Rainfall caused by La Niña may disrupt output in Nov.-Feb.
• IOI is planning to double its organic palm oil production to ~2,500ha following a positive response from European buyers
• Seeking to expand coconut plantations to 5,000ha over next 2 years
• Planning to set up coconut processing mill to produce coconut oil and water; scheduled to be operational by end-2027
• IOI CEO says company has identified a number of estates that are suitable for conversion into solar farms, without giving further details

 

Brazil’s soybean planting lags previous season on irregular rains

Brazil’s soybean planting for the 2025/26 season reached 47% of the expected area as of last Thursday, up from 36% a week earlier but lagging the 54% seen a year earlier due to irregular rainfall, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday.

The Cerrado savanna region in central Brazil is currently a major concern, AgRural said in a statement, highlighting the state of Goias, where the planting pace has been the slowest since 2017/18.

Mato Grosso state and the Matopiba area – which spans parts of Maranhao, Tocantins, Piaui and Bahia – have also faced issues, the report added, warning that adverse weather could require additional replanting.

“Although cases of replanting are still isolated, they may increase if the combination of irregular rainfall and heat continue to prevail in the coming days,” the consultancy added.

Low humidity in Goias has also limited corn planting, AgRural said, noting that the progress in Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo has been similarly affected.

Planting of the country’s first 2025/26 corn crop hit 60% of the projected area in the key center-south region, roughly matching the 59% seen a year earlier, AgRural added.

 

Canada and Pakistan agree to facilitate canola trade as Canada seeks new markets for commodity 

Canada and Pakistan have agreed to facilitate the export of Canadian canola to the South Asian nation, the countries said in a joint statement on Monday.

Canada has been looking to open new markets for the commodity after China announced preliminary anti-dumping duties on Canadian canola imports in August, a year after Canada said it would levy a 100% tariff on imports of Chinese electric vehicles.

 

SovEcon Ups Russia Wheat Exports on Higher Output, Import Demand

Russia’s 2025-26 wheat exports seen rising by 0.4m tons to 43.8m tons on a higher crop production forecast and a recovery in import demand, consultant SovEcon said in a note.

• First estimate for November wheat shipments seen at 4.2m–4.7m tons, possibly setting new monthly record
  • October wheat exports estimated at 5.4m tons
• Exports pace improving as “importers who had been waiting for lower prices are returning to the market”: Andrey Sizov Jr, head of SovEcon
  • Physical prices have held firm, with FOB Black Sea and European Union wheat steady near $230/MT in recent weeks
  • “But in the coming months, shipments will likely slow again due to seasonal weather challenges and growing competition from Argentina and Australia, both harvesting bumper crops”
• NOTE: Russia held talks with the country’s major grain traders in recent months to boost exports after a sluggish start to the season

 

Kazakhstan Harvests 27.1m Tons of Grain in 2025, Ministry Says

Kazakhstan completes grain harvest, collects 27.1m tons of grain in 2025 vs. 26.8m tons in 2024, agriculture minister Aidarbek Saparov tells government meeting.

• Wheat crop rose to 20.3m tons in 2025 from 19.8m tons in 2024
• Kazakhstan also harvested 4.3m tons of oil seeds this year compared with 3.3m tons in 2024
• All planted area totaling 16m hectares, has been harvested

 

Ukraine winter sowing 90% complete, ministry says

Ukrainian farmers had sown 5.9 million hectares of winter crops for the 2026 harvest as of November 4, equating to about 90% of the expected area, the economy ministry said on Tuesday.

The ministry has said that farmers planned to increase the 2026 winter grain sowing area to at least 5.43 million hectares from 5.24 million hectares in 2025.

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Weather conditions in late October favor crops

Cepea, 3 – After the rainfall in Southern Brazil had concerned players, the firm weather in late October has brought optimism. The climate has been favoring the development of the crops. Prices, in turn, are moving down due to the harvesting progress.

According to data from Emater/RS, the productivity in Rio Grande do Sul has been oscillating from 2.1 to 4.2 tons per hectare. The harvesting has been progressing rapidly, favored by the dry weather. The harvesting had reached 27% of the total in the state up to October 30.

In Paraná, the area already harvested is at 83% of the total, with average productivity surpassing 3.3 tons per hectare – data from Seab/Deral.

PRICES – Good perspectives for productivity in Brazil, the good crop in Argentina and lower dollar quotations and prices abroad resulted in decreases for monthly price averages.

In October, the monthly average of wheat prices in Paraná was BRL 1,216.53 per ton, downing 9.7% against September/25 and 15.6% in relation to that in October/24, in real terms (IGP-DI). In Rio Grande do Sul, the average was BRL 1,138.41/ton, 9.6% down in one month and -11.7% in one year. In São Paulo, prices averaged BRL 1.161.58/ton, -7.5% and -24.9% in the same comparisons. As for Santa Catarina, the average was BRL 1,263.26/ton in October, decreasing 7% compared to September and 13.4% against that in the same month last year. The US dollar rose 0.36% against Real, at BRL 5.387 in October/25.

 

 

 

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