Global Ag News For Oct 27.2025

TOP HEADLINES

China Slows Down Soybean Purchases Ahead of Xi-Trump Summit

Chinese buyers are holding back on soybean deals as global markets wait for a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping that could revive trade in the crop between the two nations.

Purchases have stalled for near-term shipments due to rising costs and deepening losses at crushers, according to people familiar with the matter. Traders and farmers are now watching for a possible trade deal that may reshape Chinese buying of the oilseed, said the people, who asked not to be named as they’re not authorized to speak to media.

At current prices, crushers in China would lose about 180 yuan ($25.33) for every ton of soybeans processed for December delivery, according to data compiled by commodity consultancy firm Mysteel. Margins for shipments leaving Brazil from November to January are also bad, and are discouraging buying, the people said.

Beijing has been shunning US soybeans this season, seeking leverage in the trade war with Washington. Importers have instead scooped up record shipments from South America and covered most of their demand for this year and a portion of next year. Still, they have lightly bought for December-January shipments, which are mainly due to arrive in the first two months of 2026.

Chinese crushers have already secured some shipments from February with new crops from Brazil, leaving a demand window open, albeit limited, during the US export season.

Brazilian soybean prices have surged 20% this year, driven by heightened Chinese interest despite it being the off season. Any US-China trade deal involving soybeans could drag down prices in the South American country and force crushers in China to revisit their buying plans.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 11 in SRW, up 10 1/4 in HRW, down 1 in HRS; Corn is up 6 1/4; Soybeans up 17 1/2; Soymeal up $2.10; Soyoil up 0.42.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 18 in SRW, up 22 1/4 in HRW, up 8 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 5 1/2; Soybeans up 26 1/2; Soymeal up $10.50; Soyoil down 0.67.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 15 1/2 in SRW, up 14 in HRW, down 5 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 14; Soybeans up 57 1/2; Soymeal up $22.90; Soyoil up 1.20.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 5.2% in SRW, down 8.4% in HRW, down 6.5% in HRS; Corn is down 6.5%; Soybeans up 6.1%; Soymeal down 3.9%; Soyoil up 27.3%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 26) Soybeans down 22 yuan; Soymeal down 6; Soyoil up 40; Palm oil down 20; Corn down 17 — Malaysian Palm is down 50.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 50 ringgit (-1.13%) at 4372.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 153 Soybeans; 765 Soyoil; 338 Soymeal; 619 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 24 were: SRW Wheat down 11,353 contracts, HRW Wheat down 5,980, Corn up 1,498, Soybeans down 16,351, Soymeal down 8,754, Soyoil up 5,272.

Cold front with heavy rains moves over the wheat areas in Argentina’s Pampas

What to Watch:

• Any potential wheat crop damage from ongoing rainfall activity in the Pamaps needs to be evaluated, but drier weather is expected to follow in the next week
• A wet spell in southern Brazil will ease soil moisture deficits in Parana but disrupt initial corn and soybean plantings

 

Northern Plains: It was quiet over the weekend. However, a system will move through on Monday with scattered showers and the region will be in the crosshairs for clipper systems of various strength going into early November. Temperatures will tend to be variable with all the systems moving through, but no significant threat of snow is in the forecast through next week.

Central/Southern Plains: A system brought heavy rain to parts of the region over the weekend. That should help with some of the drought that has been spreading and fill soils for winter wheat establishment. Some other spots may have seen some delays to harvest and other fieldwork. A front will move through Monday and Tuesday with some areas of showers, but the region should trend drier going into early November.

Midwest: A system skirted by the southern end of the region with some showers over the weekend. The Missouri Bootheel ended up with the heaviest rainfall amounts. A front and attached system will move through early this week with scattered showers for western and southern areas, followed by a little burst of cooler air. Some additional showers may develop in that cooler air over the weekend and the system will be dealing with a couple of clippers going into early November that should cause some variable conditions. That may cause issues with harvest and other fieldwork.

Delta: A system went through over the weekend with areas of heavy rainfall. Another front will move through on Tuesday and Wednesday with more scattered showers. The rainfall is not forecast to bring much benefit to the Mississippi River, but should improve the drought in the region.

Brazil: A front moved into southern areas over the weekend with scattered showers and some heavy rain. The front will migrate into central Brazil this week and restart showers after a week of dryness. Producers did not make as much progress on soybean planting as thought, which may be due to the dryness and producers may be worried about soil moisture for germination and early growth. Another front will move through this weekend into next week which looks like it may be more beneficial for bringing widespread showers.

Argentina: A front brought some areas of heavy rain to the country late last week, filling in some areas that were a little dry. Some showers are forecast early this week, but another front is forecast to bring through some widespread rainfall this weekend. It is much cooler in the country this week, but any areas of frost would be very limited across far southern areas and not likely to cause much, if any, damage.

Europe: A system brought widespread showers to the continent over the weekend and more showers are in the forecast for the front half of the week. Another system is likely to bring widespread rain to western areas later this week and additional waves may spring up this weekend into next week as well. All the rainfall may be making it difficult to complete fieldwork, but is favorable for winter wheat establishment in most areas.

Black Sea: Widespread rain swept through the region over the weekend and another system will bring more showers to some of the driest areas in eastern Ukraine and western Russia early this week. A few more showers will be possible there midweek. Though the rainfall is favorable for winter wheat, northern areas will start to go dormant in early November unless temperatures end up warmer than forecast. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year.

Australia: Scattered showers went through eastern Australia and some additional rainfall will be possible in northeast Australia this week as well. Showers will be tougher to find for the rest of the week. Though some of the recent rainfall has been favorable, it has been spotty and hasn’t hit all areas that have been dry. Conditions may have improved, but are still mixed.

China: Some showers went through central China over the weekend, but dryness last week was favorable to allow some wet areas to drain, aiding winter wheat and canola establishment. Though some cooler air has not been all that favorable there or in northeast China for harvest, weather conditions are still overall mostly favorable. Southern areas have been having issues with dryness though, which may affect sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops.

 

The player sheet for 10/24 had funds: net sellers of 4,000 corn, sellers of 1,000 soybeans, buyers of 500 soymeal, and sellers of 3,000 soyoil.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• BARLEY TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO issued an international tender to purchase and import about 250,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDERS: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer also issued an international tender seeking 50,000 tons of rice with price offers to be submitted on November 3. Bangladesh issued another tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice with price offers due on November 6.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase an estimated 78,744 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China, Thailand and also from unrestricted optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers is November 5.

 

 

 

TODAY

China to Make Substantial US Soybean Purchases, Bessent Says

China will make “substantial” purchases of US soybeans, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday after talks with Chinese counterparts, in a sign that the relations are thawing ahead of a possible leaders’ meeting.

Bessent’s comments to CBS’s Face the Nation follow two days of meetings with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and other officials in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. An initial consensus was reached on various bilateral issues including agriculture, according to a statement from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce.

The move underscores efforts by both sides to stabilize relations after months of on-and-off tensions and exchange of sharp rhetoric.

If confirmed by Beijing, the pledge to step up purchases of US supplies would bring major relief to American farmers struggling with financial stress after China, their top buyer, walked away this season. The Chinese government has wielded soybean imports as a major bargaining chip throughout its trade dispute with Washington, helping to strengthen its leverage in the latest round of negotiations.

US President Donald Trump has said repeatedly ahead of the planned meeting with China’s leader Xi Jinping that he would press Beijing to resume purchases of US soybeans.

Renewed Chinese buying may not offer much immediate support for US growers, as crushers in China have already secured ample soybean supplies that can cover their demand through this year and part of next, narrowing the window for new US sales.

Even so, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said “China actually has not covered all its soybean needs for December and January so they still really need American product.”

“We expect that China will have to resume those purchases if they want to have a good deal with the United States,” he said on Fox News Sunday.

Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association, said his group is encouraged by Bessent’s comments.

“Signals of purchase commitments are a positive step,” Ragland said in a statement. “We appreciate the White House and trade negotiators keeping US soybeans at the center of discussions, and are hopeful Thursday’s meeting between President Trump and President Xi will result in a trade deal that delivers results for our farmers.”

Any increase in imports from the US could weigh on domestic soymeal prices in China, deepening losses for processors already contending with thin margins.

In the longer term, Beijing is expected to stick with its strategy of diversification — deepening ties with friendly suppliers such as Brazil while expanding domestic production. The recent trade tensions have shown that China can almost all but shun US soybeans if needed, and it’s likely to ensure it never again depends on its main geopolitical rival for a crop so vital to its food security and economic stability.

 

US Launches China Tariff Probe Ahead of Trump-Xi Meeting

The Trump administration is launching a trade investigation that opens the door to new tariffs on Chinese goods, ratcheting up tensions ahead of a highly anticipated summit next week between the countries’ leaders.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on Friday announced the opening of a probe into whether China complied with a limited trade agreement reached in 2020 during President Donald Trump’s first term.

The investigation “will examine whether China has fully implemented its commitments under the Phase One Agreement, the burden or restriction on U.S. commerce resulting from any non-implementation by China of its commitments, and what action, if any, should be taken in response,” the agency said Friday in a statement.

The move threatens to exacerbate strained relations between Washington and Beijing, and could serve as another point of leverage for Trump in his meeting next Thursday with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea.

The probe is being conducted under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows the administration to adjust imports from countries deemed to have adverse trade practices. Those investigations typically last several months, or more, but serve as the legal basis for the president to unilaterally impose tariffs.

Trump’s first-term trade deal with China was based in part on Beijing’s pledges to boost purchases of US agricultural products, a source of renewed tension this year.

Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington, posted on X that China has “Scrupulously Honored the Phase One Economic and Trade Agreement” while the US has “Failed to Meet Its Obligations,” pointing to a white paper the Chinese government published in April.

Meanwhile, a 2024 study commissioned by the National Corn Growers Association and the American Soybean Association said China “fell short” of its Phase One obligation to purchase $80 billion of US agricultural products over 2020 and 2021. Instead, according to the study, China purchased only $59.2 billion of products in that time, in part because of logistical issues stemming from the Covid-19 pandemic.

The US and China have engaged in a tit-for-tat trade fight since Trump returned to office, which has reignited in recent weeks despite a truce that lowered levies between the two countries to allow for more negotiations. That pause on higher tariffs is set to expire mid-November.

The Trump administration has hit China with new curbs on exports of technology, while China has moved to restrict the flow of critical rare-earth minerals crucial to many sectors including energy, semiconductors and transportation. Trump has also threatened to add a new 100% tariff effective Nov. 1, if China does not relent on those rare-earth restrictions.

The trade fight has also seen China cut off purchases of US soybeans, hammering American farmers who have seen markets shrink amid the US president’s trade war. Still, Trump has predicted he would reach a deal with Xi on trade and other matters, raising expectations for their long-awaited summit.

 

Milei’s Party Wins Argentina Midterm Vote in Major Comeback

President Javier Milei’s party won Argentina’s midterm vote Sunday, a result that will give the libertarian leader a strong foothold in Congress to continue pursuing aggressive free-market policies that have won praise and a financial lifeline from Donald Trump.

Milei’s party, La Libertad Avanza, received 41% of votes nationwide with 92% of ballots counted, according to data published by Interior Minister Guillermo Francos on Sunday. It led in most of Argentina’s provinces and finished well ahead of the main opposition party, which in all of its iterations garnered about 32% of the vote, local newspaper Clarin said.

Milei said in a victory speech that he’d have the backing of 101 members of the lower house and 20 senators, without specifying if that total included members of other parties he had partnered with in the vote. The results would push Milei comfortably past the one-third of seats he needs in the 257-member lower house to protect his veto power, as well as a base to pursue legislative priorities like tax, labor and pension reforms as he seeks to overhaul the nation’s beleaguered economy.

“Argentines demonstrated they don’t want to return to the model of failure,” a jubilant Milei said in Buenos Aires on Sunday night. “This is the most reformist Congress in the history of Argentina.”

The result came after Milei’s party suffered a landslide defeat to the Peronist opposition in a September local vote in the Buenos Aires province, an outcome that sparked a selloff of the peso amid investor fears over the president’s standing with voters. The slide led the Trump administration to extend financial support to Argentina in an effort to help both the currency and the government.

“Congratulations to President Javier Milei on his Landslide Victory in Argentina,” Trump wrote in a social media post on Monday. “He is doing a wonderful job! Our confidence in him was justified by the People of Argentina.”

It was the province of Buenos Aires, a longtime Peronist bastion home to more than a third of the country’s voters, that propelled the turnaround.

La Libertad Avanza finished one point ahead of former President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s party in the province Sunday, a sharp reversal from its 14-point defeat last month.

Markets will likely rally Monday in response to the news of Milei’s resurgence. His relentless pursuit of deregulatory policies and ambitious budget cuts had won cheers from investors before the election last month.

Argentine bonds were among the best performers in emerging markets last year but had been throttled by volatility amid the Buenos Aires results and US support package. Investors, meanwhile, headed into Sunday’s vote with little conviction to make big bets as they searched for clues on whether Milei’s economic overhaul could survive his toughest political test yet.

The result was “a very strong and conclusive performance by Milei’s LLA party,” said Alberto Ramos, managing director and head of Latin America macroeconomic research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. “This should give his administration a fresh endowment of legitimacy and political capital which, if well used, should strengthen governability. That also bodes well for the continuation of strong US financial support.”

While trading in the spot currency market doesn’t start until mid-morning, early indications on the crypto market showed the peso at 1,435 to the dollar — which would indicate an advance of about 4.8%.

 

Malaysia to Boost Exports of Sustainable Palm Oil to S. Africa

Malaysia plans to boost exports of sustainable palm oil to South Africa following bilateral talks between the countries’ leaders.

• Increased exports of the commodity certified as Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil, or MSPO, will support South Africa’s growing demand for sustainably produced food and ingredients within its food processing and manufacturing sectors, both countries said in a joint statement on Saturday
• South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim committed to improve cooperation in areas including trade and investment, the halal industry, agriculture and defense after their meeting in the Malaysian administrative capital of Putrajaya
• South Africa is keen to export to Malaysia iron and related products, aircraft and spacecraft components, machineries and parts
• NOTE: Ramaphosa is in Malaysia to attend an Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit

 

Indonesia to introduce mandatory bioethanol-blended gasoline in 2027, minister says

Indonesia plans to impose a mandatory bioethanol content level of 10% for gasoline in 2027, part of efforts to reduce its fuel import dependence, its energy minister said on Friday.

The Southeast Asian country is aiming to expand the use of biofuels made from palm oil and sugar cane to become more energy-self sufficient. However, ethanol supply constraints have delayed its plans to introduce mandatory bioethanol content for gasoline.

Minister Bahlil Lahadalia estimated that Indonesia would need 1.4 million kilolitres of bioethanol to implement the mandatory gasoline blend of 10%.

“We plan to source all the ethanol from domestic markets,” he told reporters.

Bahlil said cassava, corn, and sugar cane could also be used for alternative feedstock for ethanol.

Indonesia had enough capacity to produce 303,325 kilolitres of bioethanol per year in 2024, but output stood at just 160,946 kL with imports at 11,829 kL, data from an association of Indonesian methylated spirits and ethanol producers showed.

Domestic demand for stood at 125,937 kL last year while exports reached 46,839 kL.

 

Russia’s AgMin confirms grain export forecast of 50 mln t for this season

Russia’s Agriculture Ministry has confirmed its forecast that grain exports will total 50 million tonnes in the current crop year, which runs from July 2025 to June 2026.

This year’s harvest will enable the country to ship about 50 million tonnes of grain to foreign markets in the current season, the ministry said in a press release.

Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said at a meeting with the president in mid-October that Russia’s export potential for grain in the current crop year was estimated at 50 million tonnes.

“We expect that in the season of the 2025/26 crop year we will be able to ship about 50 million tonnes to the foreign market taking into account carryover balances,” Lut said at the time, responding to a question from the president.

Russia exported 53 million tonnes of grain in the 2024/2025 crop year, including 44 million tonnes of wheat.

 

Russia to hike wheat export duty 70% to 167.7 rubles per tonne from Oct 29 – AgMin

The duty on Russian wheat exports will be raised 70% to 167.7 rubles per tonne in the week from October 29, from 99.1 rubles at present, the Agriculture Ministry said.

The export duties on barley and corn will remain at zero.

These duties are based on indicative prices of $225.5 per tonne for wheat, as in the previous period, $191.3 rubles per tonne versus $193.6 per tonne for barley, and $208.6 per tonne against $215.7 per tonne for corn.

The new rates will be in effect until November 6 inclusive.

The duties to be announced on November 1 will be in effect from November 7 to 11, and duties published on November 7 for the period from November 12 to 18 inclusive.

Russia introduced a grain damper mechanism on June 2, 2021, which stipulates floating duties on the export of wheat, corn and barley and the return of funds received from them to subsidize agricultural producers. The duties are calculated weekly from indicators based on the prices of export contracts registered on the Moscow Exchange (MOEX: MOEX). Duty rates were initially calculated in dollars and in rubles since July 2022. The duty is 70% of the difference between the reference and indicative prices.

The reference price for calculating the export duty on wheat is currently 18,000 rubles per tonne and the reference price on barley and corn is 17,875 rubles per tonne.

 

Pakistan Sets Wheat Production Target at 29.7 Million Tons

The Federal Committee on Agriculture approved the wheat production target for the Rabi crop, Pakistan’s Ministry for Food Security & Research says in a statement.

• The ministry earlier proposed a target of 34.3m tons, according to documents obtained by Bloomberg
• NOTE: Farmers cultivate the Rabi crop in Oct.-Dec. and harvest starts in April
• Sugarcane output increased by 0.6% to 84.7m tons this crop year to Sept.
• Rice production declined by 3.2% to 9.41m tons, cotton fell by 3.3% to 6.8m bales
• NOTE: Farmers cultivate cotton and rice from June to Sept.

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Demand for soybean meal increases; international prices rise 5% in one week

The global demand for soybean meal has moved up this week, resulting in a significant increase of futures of this byproduct at CME Group – the December/25 contract rose 5.6% from October 16-23 at CME Group. Price rises abroad, in turn, have influenced trades of soy meal in Brazil, since this scenario increased the interest from purchasers. In Brazil, purchasers are concerned with road freight costs, especially in early 2026.

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, prices for soybean meal moved up 0.4% comparing October 16 and 23.

As for soybean oil, the pace of trades is slow and prices are stable. The Brazilian value of soy oil closed at BRL 7,518.37 per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on Oct. 23.

In the soybean market, liquidity has been low. Producers continue focused on crop activities, with eyes on the soil moist, especially in South and in the Southeast. In spite of recent rains, producers indicate the need of more rainfall.

Conab reports that the soy planting in Brazil reached 21.7% of the area up to October 18, higher than the 17.6% verified in the same period of 2024, but below the 27.7% registered in the average over the last five years.

As for trades, sellers in Brazil are unwilling to close deals involving large volumes both in the spot market and term contracts. They expect an increase in the demand from China, due to the trade war between that country and the United States. It is worth noting that, in the partial of October (up to Oct. 17), Brazil shipped 3.6 million tons of soybeans, which is equivalent to 280.57 thousand tons per day, 31% more than the daily average exported one year ago, according to Secex.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) upped 0.3% from October 16 and 23, closing at BRL 138.55 per 60-kg bag on Oct. 23. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) rose 0.4% in the same comparison, to close at BRL 133.45 per 60-kg bag. On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices moved up 0.3% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 0.5% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers). The US dollar decreased 1.1% against Real in the same comparison, to close at BRL 5.386 yesterday.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Prices continue on the rise, but low demand limits increases

Producers in Brazil continue away from closing deals, scenario that has been boosting quotations. They are focused on crop activities and on the pace of shipments, which have increased again over the last weeks.

The demand, in turn, is low. Many purchasers trade only when needed, consuming inventories and or batches that had been traded previously. This scenario has limited more significant price rises.

As for crops, weather conditions have been favoring summer crop activities. The return of rainfall is likely to favor producing areas in the South and allow the planting, in 2026, of the second crop in the Central-West in the ideal period. Thus, the production is expected to be good in Brazil in the next season.

The ESALQ/BM&F Bovespa Index for corn prices increased 0.8% between October 16 and 23, to close at BRL 65.63 per 60-kg bag on October 23. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, in the same period, corn values upped 0.2% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 1.3% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers).

 

Brazil’s Corn Ethanol Boom Is Pushing Global Sugar Prices Lower

A rush to make car fuel from corn in Brazil has had an unexpected side effect: a slump in global sugar prices.

Booming corn ethanol production in the South American nation has pushed sugar-cane processors away from the biofuel market, prompting them to divert a record share of their crop to making sweetener. The push has helped drive sugar prices to their lowest in four years.

The shift underscores the growing challenges faced by the once-mighty Brazilian sugar-cane industry. Mills including Raizen SA and Sao Martinho SA would typically switch between producing more sugar or ethanol according to what is more profitable. Now, rising competition from corn-based biofuel means many of them may have to stick with sugar — even if prices stay low.

“The problem with the market today is that we have another element which is corn ethanol,” said Jeremy Austin, general director in Brazil for crop trader Sucres et Denrees, during a conference during Sugar Week in Sao Paulo. “The price forecast is not going to be amazing” for producers, he added.

Sugar futures fell as much as 2.4% on Friday, extending the yearly decline to about 22% — on track for the biggest annual loss since 2017 amid the outlook for rising supplies. Global production will exceed consumption by 2.8 million metric tons in the marketing year that began this month, reversing last season’s deficit, according to StoneX Group Inc. Forward contracts indicate even lower prices for sugar deliveries in 2026.

Normally, under such a scenario, cane millers in Brazil’s main producing region would switch to producing more ethanol. But they are poised to churn out a record 43 million metric tons of sugar from next year’s harvest, up 4.6% from the previous one, according to consulting firm Datagro.

That’s as a growing number of companies processing corn into fuel are flooding Brazil with ethanol that costs less to make than that from sugar-cane. While sugar-cane ethanol is still dominant, corn-based output will account for 32% of the gasoline substitute produced in the South American nation in the local season starting in April, up from 23% in the current one, according to StoneX Group Services Inc.

The outlook for record ethanol supplies next season threatens to push prices lower, making sugar a still better option for cane millers, particularly in top-producing state Sao Paulo, StoneX analyst Camila Lima said.

Shares of Raizen, Brazil’s largest sugar-cane processor, have slumped 56% this year. Smaller rivals Jalles Machado SA and Sao Martinho have lost 42% and 37%, respectively.

Sugar-cane processors have stretched their sugar-making capacity in the past few years as they faced growing competition from corn-ethanol while seeking to take full advantage of a surge in sugar prices between 2022 and 2023.

Brazilian cane millers “will have no other choice” but to make more sugar, Datagro economist Bruno Wanderley de Freitas said.

 

Favourable weather boosts winter grain sowing in Europe

• Drier weather contrasts with previous rain-disrupted sowing seasons
• French, German, UK sowing well advanced, late Polish maize harvest curbs progress
• Europe’s winter cereal area expected to be little changed, rapeseed may gain most area

Sowing of winter grains has advanced rapidly in much of Europe, helped by drier weather than in the rain-hit starts to the past two campaigns and raising the prospect of a steady planted area despite low market prices, analysts said.

A dry early October allowed widespread drilling before wetter conditions forecast from this week, which should support soil moisture for crop development.

This could keep the area with soft wheat, Europe’s main cereal crop, relatively stable, said Erick Kambayeko, crop analyst at Expana.

The firm expects more variation for earlier-sown rapeseed, which may gain area due to better margins than for cereals, and for later-planted spring barley and maize, which could lose ground.

The favourable conditions contrast with rain-disrupted sowings in 2023 and 2024, though a drier end to autumn last year helped wheat and barley recover.

In France, farmers had sown over half the expected soft wheat area and nearly three-quarters of winter barley by October 20, ahead of the five-year average, according to farm office FranceAgriMer.

“We see rather favourable sowing windows for soft wheat and winter barley,” Kambayeko said. “In most cases there’s sufficient moisture without excess water.”

Soft wheat and winter barley area could rise slightly in France, though rapeseed is expected to see larger gains, he added.

In Germany, sowing is nearly complete after good weather spells.

“Sowings are almost completed on schedule apart from areas to be sown after maize and sugar beet harvesting,” a German grains analyst said. He expected little change in grain crop areas, with low benchmark prices on Euronext BL2c1 offering few incentives to switch, though rapeseed may increase slightly.

In Britain, field work has also gone well, with winter sowing already finished in some regions, said Luke Cox, senior policy specialist at the National Farmers’ Union.

“Most farms will hope to drill an area of winter cereals in line with their cropping plans, which hasn’t been possible in recent years due to extreme weather,” he said.

Major shifts in crop areas are not expected, though rapeseed may expand after a good harvest, he added.

In Poland, winter wheat and rapeseed sowings may fall slightly, said Wojtek Sabaranski of research firm Sparks Polska.

A delayed maize harvest could limit winter wheat sowing and lead to more spring barley and spring wheat, while farmer dissatisfaction with rapeseed prices may trim oilseed’s area, he said.

 

 

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