Written Commentary
ADM Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results
November 4, 2025
London Wheat Report
As we approach first notice day on Nov25 London wheat (27.10.25), with OI expected to be 465 after today’s 127 lots went through, is the pressure on the long or the short? Will we see a decent tender or will this OI go to zero? It will be interesting to see what happens to Nov25 price and the Nov25/May25 spread over the next two sessions.
Matif Dec25/Mar26 continues to tighten, settling at -1.75 we are keeping a close eye on this with memory of the Sept25/Dec25 going to a reasonable premium.
Fresh news is limited as the partial Fed. Govt. shutdown is now in its 4th week.
Pres. Trump maintains he plans on meeting with Chinese leader Xi in less than 2 weeks with hopes of further advancing trade talks while US trade representative Greer and Treasury Sec. Bessent travel to Malaysia to meet with Chinese trade officials this weekend. Yesterday the Trump Admin announced they would reopen the FSA portion of the USDA while also distributing $3 bil. in aid to farmers hurt by China’s boycott of American soybeans. The Administration continues to hint at a larger aid package funded by US tariff revenues, however, work here is on hold with the partial Fed. Shutdown.
Spot crude oil is up $1.40 per barrel after EIA data showed US inventories fell nearly 1 mil. barrels vs. expectations for a 1.3 mil. barrel build.
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