Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q3 2025
October 6, 2025
London Wheat Report
London looked to follow the French Matif wheat contract down again today, which in turn looked to follow Chicago further into the red across all traded contracts. Volumes were somewhat frugal in comparison, as it appeared clear that market participants were not buoyed on by the price slide.
It was reported today in European Union data that soft wheat exports since the start of the 2025/26 season were down 21% year-on-year by October 19 at 5.87 mmt. About 5.51 mmt were exported by October 12, compared to 7.49 mmt a year earlier. As previously noted, however, export data for France are not complete since April 2024, while export data for Bulgaria and Ireland are not complete since the beginning of marketing year 2023/24, thus skewing. A breakdown of this season’s volumes showed Romania was still the largest EU soft wheat exporter with 2.45 mmt exported so far, followed by France with 0.92 mmt and Lithuania with 0.84 mmt.
Further east in Omsk, one of Siberia’s key grain-producing regions, it has been reported that a state of emergency has been declared due to the impact of early snowfall on crops. This news originates from regional governor Vitaly Khotsenko, who posted on messaging app Telegram earlier today. Last year’s severe weather conditions destroyed a significant portion of Russian crops across the country. As it stands, this year, problems have also arisen in a number of regions, including in the south of the country and in Siberia. The state of emergency allows farmers to receive insurance payments. This report came in parallel to the news from Russia’s IKAR consultancy, who have actually raised their 2025 wheat and grain production forecasts for the country. IKAR raised the wheat crop forecast from 87.5 mmt to 88 mmt.
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