Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q3 2025
October 6, 2025
CRUDE OIL
December Crude Oil is slightly higher this morning after trading to its lowest level since May yesterday. The market saw pressure yesterday from an IEA forecast calling for world oil supply to will rise by 3.0 million barrels per day in 2025, up from a previous forecast of +2.7 million. They also lowered their forecast for world demand growth this year to 710,000 bpd from 740,000 in its previous forecast. The market is also facing an expected increase in supply from OPEC+ nations. Pressure also came from an new wrinkle in US-China trade relations with both nations implementing port fees against each other’s ships, which raises concern about demand. API and EIA reports are a day late this week due to the holiday Monday.
NATURAL GAS
December Natural Gas took out the August low overnight, and the nearby contract fell to its lowest level since September 26. The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts call for above normal temps from the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard, which continue to keep heating demand lows. Yesterday, LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports to drop from 100.7 bcfd last week to 99.5 bcfd this week.
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