Global Ag News For Oct 7.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Australia’s Bumper Wheat Crop Trimmed by Dry Spell in Southeast

A dry spell in Australia is taking the edge off of a bumper wheat harvest, trimming supplies from one of the world’s largest exporters.

Precipitation in September, a key phase for the crop’s development, was lower than normal in the southeastern states of Victoria and South Australia, according to Bureau of Meteorology data. South Australia in particular received less than 10 millimeters (0.4 inches), half the historical average.

The southeastern states account for about a quarter of Australia’s annual harvest, and both are coming out of years of severe drought. Heavy rain in winter months had raised hopes for a strong harvest, and the Department of Agriculture’s latest report in September forecast the country’s wheat harvest at its fourth largest on record. Victoria and South Australia were expected to collect about 8.2 million tons.

However, soil moisture has now worsened, and as temperatures warm up, crops could begin to struggle, said James Maxwell, agribusiness senior insights manager at Bendigo Bank.

Australia is a major wheat shipper, and while Victoria and South Australia’s wheat harvest usually caters to domestic demand, any decline in the harvest would tighten availability across the supply chain. Farmers typically begin collecting wheat around October and will finish early next year.

“I think there will be some cuts to production estimates, if they haven’t already been made, in the next month or so,” Maxwell said in an interview. “Between South Australia and Victoria, I’d say we could see easily half a million tons, up to a million, if it was really bad.”

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are unchanged in SRW, down 1/4 in HRW, down 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 1/2; Soybeans up 2 1/4; Soymeal down $0.40; Soyoil up 0.25.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 2 1/2 in SRW, down 1 1/2 in HRW, down 3 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3 1/4; Soybeans up 1 1/2; Soymeal down $1.90; Soyoil up 0.46.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 4 3/4 in SRW, down 2 1/2 in HRW, down 6 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 6 3/4; Soybeans up 18 1/4; Soymeal up $3.40; Soyoil up 1.14.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 7.0% in SRW, down 11.4% in HRW, down 6.7% in HRS; Corn is down 7.9%; Soybeans up 2.1%; Soymeal down 12.6%; Soyoil up 25.2%.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 39 ringgit (+0.88%) at 4476.

China markets remain closed for holiday.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 153 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 364 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 6 were: SRW Wheat up 4,303 contracts, HRW Wheat up 175, Corn up 4,763, Soybeans down 264, Soymeal up 8,934, Soyoil down 2,131.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 07 OCT 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Warm weather will dominate the U.S. this week. Next week, colder conditions will settle in the West, while the Plains, Midwest, and East stay warm. Rainfall will be above normal in the West and northern Plains; elsewhere, dry conditions will prevail.
• SOUTH AMERICA: Pampas stays warm with below-normal rainfall, while Brazil experiences wet conditions and mixed temperatures.
• EUROPE: Europe will see warm weather this week, followed by colder conditions next week. Dry conditions are expected to persist over the next 15 days.
• ASIA: South and Southeast Asia are likely to see near-normal to cool conditions, with warmth confined to the East over the 10-day outlook. Moderate to heavy rain is expected in the East/Southeast Asia and southern Peninsular India.
• TROPICS: Hurricane Priscilla may bring heavy rainfall to the Southwest U.S. later this week. Typhoon Halong is expected to stay well offshore, tracking south of Japan, bringing strong winds and heavy rainfall to nearby coastal areas middle this week.

 

UPCOMING SOUTH AMERICA RAINS WILL BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BRAZIL

What to Watch:

• Warm and dry weather will dominate across most of Argentina into late October, but cooler/wetter conditions may then arrive in a favorable crop outlook
• A Brazil cold front this week will focus rains over portions of the South region, with dryness persisting elsewhere to the benefit of crop progress
• Moderate temperatures and dry conditions are in store for Paraguay through the next couple weeks, facilitating corn/soybean plantings

 

Brazil – Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday, mostly north. Temperatures falling Monday, below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Brazil – Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias: Spotty showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, near to below normal south and above normal north Tuesday-Friday. 

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Wednesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.  

Midwest West: Isolated to scattered showers Monday, south Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday.

Midwest East: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Wednesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

 

The player sheet for 10/6 had funds: net buyers of 3,500 corn, sellers of 500 soybeans, sellers of 2,500 soymeal, and sellers of 500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Saudi Arabia bought 455,000 metric tons of wheat in an international tender for shipment in December and January, the country’s General Food Security Authority (GFSA) said. The volume was more than the 420,000 tons that GFSA had indicated it was seeking in the tender that closed on October 3. Traders said they expected the wheat to be mainly sourced from Russia and other Black Sea countries.
• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in the international tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice was estimated at $359.77 a metric ton CIF liner out.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 157,000 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China and the United States
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

CROP SURVEY: US Corn Harvest Seen 31% Complete, Soybeans 38%

The US corn harvest seen advancing to 31% complete in the week ending Oct. 5 from 18% complete the previous week, according to the average in a Bloomberg News survey of as many as 12 analysts.

• Corn harvest was 30% complete at this time last season
• Soybean harvest seen at 38% complete vs 47% complete at this time last season
• The USDA has suspended publication of its weekly Crop Progress and Conditions report due to the federal government shutdown

 

US Inspected 1.6m Tons of Corn for Export, 768k of Soybeans

In week ending Oct. 2, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Wheat: 505k tons vs 874k the previous wk, 365k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 768k tons vs 611k the previous wk, 1,626k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Oct. 2

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Oct. 2 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for Mexico-bound shipments made up 218k tons of the 768k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, Korea Rep led in wheat

 

Brazil Soybean Planting 9% Completed as of Oct. 2: Agrural

Planting of Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop is 9% completed, which compares with 3% a week earlier and 4% same time last year, according to an emailed report from consulting firm AgRural.

• The pace is the second-fastest on record for this time of the year, AgRural said
• Planting of the summer corn crop in Brazil’s Center-South region is 40% completed, vs 32% a week earlier and 37% a year earlier
  • That’s the fastest pace since the 2012/13 crop

 

Brazil September Agriculture, Mining Exports by Volume: MDIC

Following is a summary of key Brazilian agriculture and mining exports by volume, from the Brazilian Trade Ministry.

• Beef exports rose 25% in September from a year ago
• Soybean exports rose 20% y/y
• Coffee exports fell 19% y/y

 

Argentina Increases Bioethanol, Biodiesel Prices: Gazette

Argentina raised the minimum prices for bioethanol and biodiesel blended with traditional fossil fuels effective Oct. 6, according to resolutions 385/2025 and 386/2025 published in official gazette.

• Price of bioethanol made from sugarcane was set at 891.286 pesos ($0.63) per liter
  • Price of bioethanol made from corn was set at 816.887 pesos per liter
• Price of biodiesel was set at 1,508,704 pesos per metric ton

 

Brazil may not introduce 16% biodiesel mix into diesel on deadline, official says

Brazil may not be able to raise the mandatory biodiesel mix in diesel to 16% from 15% within a government-set deadline of March 2026, an official from the Brazilian Ministry of Mines and Energy said on Monday.

Marlon Arraes, director of biofuels at the ministry, said during an industry event in Sao Paulo that there may not be enough time for the government to finalize the needed studies to implement the measure.

“It’s possible that we won’t be able to meet the March deadline. It’s highly challenging,” Arraes said, adding the government has yet to finalize a report to be able to implement the new phase of the policy.

Brazilian law mandates a gradual increase in the biodiesel mix of one percentage point per year, potentially reaching 20% by 2030. The official declined to give a timeline for introduction of the 16% mandatory mix.

The potential postponement of the deadline would mainly impact the soybean oil industry, as the oilseed is used to produce more than 75% of Brazil’s biodiesel.

The 15% mix, which was supposed to become mandatory in March this year, was only implemented in August, with the country’s government citing inflation concerns.

According to the official, the legislation requires that any increase in the blend be conditioned on technical feasibility studies, which are ongoing.

 

Indonesia takes another step towards B50 biodiesel

Indonesia took another step towards launching biodiesel containing 50% palm-oil based biofuel (B50) by concluding laboratory tests, an energy ministry official said on Tuesday, as the country aims for implementation next year.

Palm-oil based biodiesel is currently mandated at 40% blend (B40) but Indonesia wants to increase the level to reduce its reliance on imports of fossil fuels.

The laboratory testing involved running an engine using the B50 fuel and was concluded in August. Officials will now carry out road tests, the energy ministry’s bioenergy director, Edi Wibowo, told Reuters.

“Based on the test results we will move forward to launch road tests and testing on non-automotive machineries that run on diesel,” he said.

The timing of the road test was still to be decided, he said.

Indonesia aims to make B50 mandatory in 2026, but it was unlikely to happen in January, a senior energy ministry official said in August.

Adopting B50 would require 20.1 million kilolitres of palm-oil based biofuel a year for mixing with regular petroleum diesel, compared to 15.6 million KL with B40, energy ministry data show.

 

Indian Farmers Increase Rice and Corn Sowing as of October 3

The area allocated to monsoon-sown rice crops has increased 5.9% from a year earlier to 44.16 million hectares as of Friday, according to India’s agriculture ministry.

Farmers have planted corn on 9.5 million hectares of land, 10.7% higher from a year earlier, the ministry said late Monday. Pulses planting has increased to 12.04 million hectares, up 1.4% from a year earlier, it said.

 

Trump bailout for trade-hit US farmers expected this week

• White House meetings on aid held, announcement expected soon
• Plan faces hurdles due to ongoing government shutdown
• Bailout framed as a ‘bridge’ for harvest months, source says

The Trump administration is expected to announce a plan as soon as Tuesday to bail out U.S. farmers stung by trade disputes and big harvests, with the initial outlay potentially totaling up to $15 billion, according to sources familiar with the matter.

The plan, however, could be difficult to roll out as an ongoing government shutdown prevents the kind of Congressional action needed to approve such a large payout, and existing government reserves fall short, the sources said.

Farmers generally support President Donald Trump but have pressed his administration for trade deals as China continues to spurn U.S. soybean purchases amid tit-for-tat tariffs, and a record corn harvest threatens to sink farmer profits.

Republican lawmakers have warned farmers face “financial calamity” if they do not receive aid by the end of the year. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last week that the White House would announce aid for farmers on Tuesday.

Three sources told Reuters they expected the administration to announce the package this week.

One of those sources said the bailout would total somewhere between $10 billion and $15 billion, and would be a necessary bridge to get farmers through the harvest months and could be followed by additional aid.

The funds would go to soybean farmers affected by the China trade spat, as well as other types of commodity farmers, though the exact details were not yet determined, that source said.

A U.S. Department of Agriculture spokesperson said farmers are benefiting from lower taxes, trade deals and updates to farm programs included in Trump’s July tax-cut and spending bill.

“President Trump has made it clear he will not leave farmers behind, so USDA will continue to assess the farm economy and explore the need for further assistance, however, there is nothing new to share at this time,” the spokesperson said.

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett on Monday said the White House had held several meetings on farmer aid in the past two weeks.

“We’re taking big measures and those big measures are going to be public really, really soon,” he said on CNBC.

 

Ukraine’s Winter Grain Sowing Lags Behind Last Year: Ministry

Ukraine has sown about 3.6m hectares of winter crops, including wheat, barley and rapeseed, as of Oct. 7, or 5% less than at the same time last year, Economy Ministry says on its website.

• Sowing so far covers nearly 50% of the projected area
• The total includes:
  • 2.3m hectares of winter wheat, down 12% y/y
  • 179,200 hectares of winter barley, down 14% y/y
  • 985,300 hectares of winter rapeseed, almost on par with last year
• Leading regions for winter grains include Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv and Poltava
• The largest areas of winter rapeseed reported in Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi and Mykolaiv; farmers in 13 regions have completed sowing of this crop

 

Ukraine approves mechanism for duty-free rapeseed, soybeans exports

Ukraine has approved new documentation to accompany exports of rapeseed and soybeans that are exempt from a new duty, the government’s website said, after confusion about the levy halted shipments of oilseeds for the past month.

Parliament passed a bill in July imposing the 10% duty on exports of the two oilseed crops, with the aim of increasing domestic processing volumes and boosting revenue for a state budget strained by the war with Russia.

The law allowed duty-free exports for those who export oilseeds from their own production, but did not provide a list of documents required for such shipments.

Rapeseed exports in September fell by nearly 59% to 201,000 metric tons after the introduction of the duty on September 4 and were halted for most of September.

The government said the new procedure would come into force after the official publication and duty-free exports would be possible with a certificate issued by Ukraine’s Chamber of Commerce.

Certificates will be issued for each shipment.

Ukrainian farmers have completed the 2025 rapeseed harvest, threshing 3.3 million metric tons of the commodity. Ukraine usually exports most of its output.

 

Russia’s top agriculture official blames low global grain prices for export slowdown

Low global prices for grains, Russia’s main agricultural commodity, have caused a sharp fall in exports in recent months, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev, who oversees agriculture, told President Vladimir Putin on Monday.

Wheat exports in Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, fell by about 30% year-on-year in August and by 10% in September, according to data compiled by Sovecon consultancy, despite forecasts pointing to a good harvest this year.

“In 2025, there is generally an increase in export revenue across almost all sectors, except for grains. The situation here is not very good,” Patrushev told Putin at a televised meeting.

“We have been exporting fewer grains, but this is due to extremely low global prices for this product,” Patrushev said, stressing that demand for Russian grain among key customers continued to be high.

Benchmark global wheat futures Wv1 remain close to a five-year low set in August with the prospect of a record global crop in the 2025/26 marketing season contributing to the weakness in prices.

The slowdown in grain exports casts doubt on Putin’s plan to increase Russia’s agricultural exports by 50% by 2030 and also signals emerging deeper problems in Russia’s farming sector, which has been booming in recent years.

The agriculture ministry called a meeting with the leading exporters at the start of September to discuss measures to boost exports, saying it wants to increase price formation transparency through development of exchange trade in grains.

Many farmers blame the wheat export duty, introduced in 2021 to protect the domestic market, as well as rising costs of fuel, fertilizers and machinery for the falling profitability of growing and exporting wheat.

Drought in southern parts of Russia, which have easy access to main export terminals on the Black Sea, contributed to the slowdown as export logistics for regions which had good harvest this year have become more difficult.

Egypt and Turkey are traditionally the main buyers of Russian wheat but the government is seeking to diversify exports to Asia in order to unlock the potential of new grain-producing regions in the Urals and Siberia.

 

Russia Harvests 128m Tons of Grain, Sees Crop at 135m Tons: IFX

Russia has already harvested 128m tons of grain, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut says, according to Interfax.

Russia maintains 2025 harvest forecast at 135m tons

 

Bangladesh Approves Plan to Buy 220,000 Tons of US Wheat

Bangladesh will purchase 220,000 tons of wheat from US Wheat Associates at $308 per ton under a government-to-government deal, the Finance Ministry said in a statement Tuesday.

• Agrocorp, authorized by US Wheat Associates, will supply the grain
• A cabinet committee approved the purchase proposal from the food ministry at a meeting in Dhaka

 

 

 

 

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