Traders Missing Crop Progress Reports

COTTON

December Cotton was lower overnight and back in the vicinity of the October 1 low. The government shutdown has traders “flying blind,” having missed the weekly Export Sales report on Thursday and the Crop Progress report yesterday. Export sales have been very slow this season, and there is little evidence that they have started to pick up. As of September 18, cumulative sales for 2025/26 had reached just 36% of the USDA forecast versus a five-year average of 53% for this point in the marketing year. US crop conditions have been running better than normal, and the bolls open and harvested percentages in the last report showed the crop was close to average pace. Lacking the export sales, some traders are expecting the market to fall below the April low to around 60-62 cents. If the government shutdown ends this week and there is a WASDE report on Thursday as scheduled, it is possible USDA could lower its export forecast. However, it may be a bit early in the season.

COCOA

December Cocoa bounced off its lows yesterday but was back near those levels overnight. The return of seasonal rains last month and anecdotal reports of a strong crop in Ivory Coast have pressured that market, as have the increases in official farmgate prices for growers in Ivory Coast and Ghana, which are reportedly encouraging sales. There has been no report on Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals this week. Ivory Coast farmers interviewed by Reuters said yesterday that below-average rains mixed with sunny spells across Ivory Coast’s main cocoa regions last week are expected to improve the size and quality of the October-to-March main crop. They said weather conditions bode well for yields at least through December, and they reported that the first beans are of good quality and size. They also expect the pace of beans leaving the bush to accelerate.

COFFEE

December Coffee was lower overnight, perhaps on optimism that the 50% US tariffs on Brazilian coffee imports could be lifted. It appears that Presidents Trump and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva had an amiable phone call yesterday, based on their comments to the press, and this has raised hopes that the two sides will come to some agreement regarding the tariffs. They reportedly agreed to meet “soon,” and there are some expectations that it could happen at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Malaysia on October 26-27. There are reports of robust flowering in some areas of Minas Gerais, Brazil, but more is needed for pollination and the fruit establishment. Rain is still scarce in some areas.

SUGAR

March Sugar extended yesterday’s rally overnight but fell backed off from its highs. Yesterday, the market pushed through the neckline of a head and shoulders bottom pattern, which is often viewed as a major reversal. The question is whether the market has played out the bearish fundamentals: increased production out of Asia, better than expected production in Brazil, and a global surplus forecast for this year.

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.