Written Commentary
ADM Exceeds 5M Regenerative Agriculture Acreage Gal
September 9, 2025
CORN
Prices were $.02-$.03 lower following a late selloff. Spreads were mixed and little changed. Dec-25 corn traded to a new high for the week however stalled just below its 100 day MA at $4.24. Speculative traders bought 10k contracts yesterday cutting their short position back to 100k. Open interest however rose nearly 12k contracts, an indication of fresh $$$ coming in on the long side of the market, not just a short covering rebound. Yesterday S&P Global lowered their US corn production forecast to 16.707 bil. bu. 107 mil. below the USDA est. in Sept-25. They knocked their Ave. corn yield down nearly 4 bpa to 185.5 vs. the USDA est. of 186.7. Today the Linn Group estimated US corn production at 16.635 bil. bu. with an average yield of 184.7 bpa. Argentina plantings are moving quickly according to the BAGE at 20%, up from 12% LW. A leading Ukrainian farm group raised their corn production forecast 3 mmt to 29 mmt, still below the USDA forecast of 32 mmt. The UN’s food and agricultural organization’s World Food Price Index slipped to 128.8 in Sept. down from 129.7 in August. Lower costs for dairy, vegetable oils, sugar and cereals more than offset higher meat costs.
SOYBEANS
Prices finished lower across the complex with beans $.04-$.06 lower, meal was down less than a $1 while oil was 10-15 points lower. Spreads also weakened. Late hedge pressure from weekend harvest likely factored in while the market may have also tapped all the support it could from Pres. Trump’s China/soybean social media posts from earlier this week. A WSJ report late yesterday stated the Trump Admin. is developing an aid package for American farmers in the $10-$14 bil. dollar range using tariff revenue to fund much of the financial assistance. US harvest should continue to roll nearly uninterrupted thru the weekend before scattered showers begin to fill in early next week. Temperatures to remain in a much above normal pattern thru mid-Oct. Deliveries against Oct-25 meal jumped to 244 contracts while oil fell to 276. Early strength saw Nov-25 beans trade to a fresh 2 week however also stalled just below its 100 day MA at $10.29 ¼. Fresh 2 week high for Dec-25 meal before pulling back. Dec-25 oil spent the latter half of the week consolidating near $.50 lb. Spot board crush margins held steady at $1.45 ½ bu. with bean oil PV slipping to 47.3%. Yesterday speculative traders bought 10k contracts of beans, 5,500 meal, while selling a couple thousand oil. That’s 40k contracts of soybeans the past 2 sessions, pretty much wiping out what was a modest short position. Either the speculative community feels the odds of a trade agreement with China is increasing, or yields are not holding up as harvest rolls, or just given the uncertainty of it all, they just wanted out. Probably a little bit of both, however O.I. yesterday did climb nearly 3k contracts in beans. S&P Global lowered their soybean yield to 53 bpa down from 53.8 with production at 4.261 bil. 40 mil. bu. below the USDA. The Linn Group is forecasting US bean production at 4.185 bil. bu., 116 mil. below the USDA, with an average yield of 52.1 bpa.
WHEAT
Prices were steady to $.02 lower across the 3 classes today. Dec-25 CGO was able to scratch out a 3rd consecutive higher close, up $.00 ½, however nowhere else. The Taiwan Flour Milling Group reportedly purchased just over 80k mt of US milling wheat for late Nov. thru Dec-25 shipment. The purchase included durum, HRW and soft white. Russia has reportedly shipped only 5.7 mmt of grain in Sept-25, down 28% YOY. Of that 5.1 mmt was wheat. To help stimulate sales the Russia’s Ag. Ministry lowered their export tax 20% to 493.4 roubles/mt for the period ending Oct. 14th. The BAGE reports 93% of the Argentine crop is in G/E condition, up from 89% LW. They recently raised their production forecast to 22 mmt, well above the USDA est. of 19.5.
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