Global Ag News For Oct 1.2025

TOP HEADLINES

How a US government shutdown would affect USDA data, nutrition programs and operations

Market-sensitive commodity data reports released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and nutrition programs that feed millions of Americans could be vulnerable to disruption if the federal government shuts down early Wednesday morning.

During shutdowns, nonessential government employees are typically furloughed or placed on temporary unpaid leave. Workers deemed essential, including those dealing with public safety, food safety, and national security, keep working.

The U.S. Congress has until Tuesday to pass legislation keeping the federal government open or trigger a partial shutdown. During past shutdowns, market-sensitive reports issued by the USDA and other government agencies were suspended.

The USDA told Reuters it is “prepared for all contingencies regarding department operations, including critical services and supports” if the government shuts down, but did not respond to questions about specific reports and programs. The agency published an updated shutdown contingency plan on Tuesday afternoon.

Below is a primer on how basic agency operations and nutrition programs would be affected by a shutdown based on the most recent available information, and a schedule of USDA reports planned for release on and after October 1.

During a shutdown, about 42,000 USDA staff would be furloughed, according to the agency’s 2025 shutdown contingency plan, roughly half the agency’s employees.

Activities deemed mission-critical, like food safety inspections and some lab operations, would continue, while efforts like non-mandatory data collection and most research would cease, the document shows.

The agency would use emergency funds to continue animal health programs related to diseases like bird flu and New World screwworm, the document shows.

The agency would halt issuance of new farm loans, but maintain some operations of the Farm Service Agency depending on the length of a shutdown, the document shows.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3 1/2 in SRW, down 5 in HRW, down 1 in HRS; Corn is down 2; Soybeans down 6; Soymeal down $2.10; Soyoil up 0.15.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 13 1/4 in SRW, down 11 1/4 in HRW, down 5 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 8 1/2; Soybeans down 18; Soymeal down $2.90; Soyoil down 0.73.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 8.2% in SRW, down 11.6% in HRW, down 5.6% in HRS; Corn is down 9.8%; Soybeans down 0.3%; Soymeal down 14.1%; Soyoil up 22.2%.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 36 ringgit (+0.83%) at 4388.

China markets are closed for holiday.

There were changes in registrations (189 Soymeal). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 153 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 264 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 30 were: SRW Wheat up 10,194 contracts, HRW Wheat up 7,597, Corn up 11,836, Soybeans down 7,242, Soymeal up 10,586, Soyoil up 608.

 

Daily Weather Headlines: 01 October 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Rainfall activity may increase over the U.S. Midwest next week, but warm and dry weather will favor harvests this week
• SOUTH AMERICA: Dry conditions will dominate in the Argentinian Pampas for the next 10 days and will ease soil moisture surpluses, except for one wet spell this weekend
• EUROPE: A significant cold spell, with temperatures 4-8 °C below normal, is expected over Eastern and Southeastern Europe in the coming days
• AFRICA: Increasingly wet conditions across Western Africa over the next week will affect the cocoa harvest
• TROPICS: Another tropical development is likely over the Philippine Sea, with potential impacts from a pronounced typhoon on southern China later this week

 

WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL IN NORTH AMERICA DURING THE COMING WEEKS

What to Watch:

• Widespread well above normal temperatures
• Dry conditions across most U.S. croplands

 

Northern Plains: A front will move into the region on Wednesday and may produce some showers, with better chances for Friday into the weekend. Any rainfall is likely to be disruptive to the harvest and not favorable for even immature crops.

Central/Southern Plains: Warm and dry conditions continue in most areas this week, favorable for fieldwork of all kinds. A front will move into the region over the weekend and may produce showers into early next week. Any rainfall would not be favorable for harvest, but would keep soil moisture fairly high for winter wheat planting and establishment.

Midwest: Warm and dry conditions continue throughout the week. A front will try to produce showers as it gets into the region over the weekend, continuing to some degree into next week. Rainfall could be disruptive to maturing crops and harvest.

Delta: Warm and dry weather in the forecast is favorable for harvest, but not for the river systems, which are drying back out again after getting a nice bump from last week’s rainfall. Largely drier conditions would cause transportation issues for much of the fall season.

Brazil: A front will continue to produce rainfall in southern Brazil throughout this week, favorable for planting and early growth. Central Brazil has gotten drier and only spotty showers are in the forecast through next week, unfavorable for soybean planting after a round of rain got progress going well ahead of schedule in the region. Seeds that have been planted are at risk of germinating and quickly dying over the next couple of weeks.

Argentina: A front continues over far northern areas with showers this week and most areas have good soil moisture for early planting and establishment. Another front moving through this weekend should produce more widespread rainfall. Soybean planting may begin this week, but most areas will wait for significant planting later on in October.

Europe: Isolated showers continue over eastern areas of the continent for much of the week, particularly in the Balkans which need rain. Another system is forecast to move into the west on Friday with strong winds and widespread rainfall, which will spread through most of the continent this weekend into early next week. Spain is forecast to be left out, which could use more rainfall.

Black Sea: A system moving through southeastern Europe is promoting more widespread rainfall this week, particularly in Ukraine. Some areas remain very dry though for winter wheat planting and establishment, especially in southwestern Russia. Drier weather is likely for next week and beyond, which may mean only limited benefit from this week’s rainfall.

Australia: The country has gone into a drier stretch again, which is somewhat troubling for winter wheat and canola going through their reproductive stages. Some showers will go through southeastern areas, but most of the country will be dry this week. Western areas could see some beneficial rainfall this weekend, however.

China: Weather continues to be mostly favorable for corn and soybean harvest in northeast China. Central China continues to see occasional showers this week, favorable for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment.

 

The player sheet for 9/30 had funds: net sellers of 6,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 18,500 corn, sellers of 5,500 soybeans, sellers of 4,000 soymeal, and buyers of 500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• BARLEY SALE: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has provisionally bought animal feed barley in an international tender seeking to purchase and import about 255,000 metric tons of the cereal.
• FAILED WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which closed on Tuesday.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 80,550 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 157,000 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China and the United States
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

CROP SURVEY: US Aug. Soybean Processing Before USDA’s Report

The following is from a Bloomberg survey of six anlaysts.

Soybean crush seen at 196.4m bu in Aug., a 17.2% rise from a year ago

Crude and once-refined soybean-oil reserves at end of August seen at 1.726b lbs, up from 1.629b

Corn used in ethanol production seen down 5.4% y/y to 453.6m bu

 

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Sept. 26 are based on five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Production seen unchanged from the previous week at 1.024m b/d

Stockpile avg est. 23.431m bbl vs 23.468m a week ago

 

US Lawmakers Give Up on China Resuming Crop Purchases for Now

Republican lawmakers said that China won’t begin purchasing US agricultural products anytime soon after a closed-door briefing from David Perdue, the US ambassador to that country.

As part of the fallout from President Donald Trump’s trade war, China has yet to book a single shipment of US soybeans this season, fueling anxiety among farmers as this year’s harvest moves ahead. China is the world’s largest soybean importer.

“We recognize that China has intentionally not bought farm goods. We don’t expect them to change that. That’s part of the long-term stuff,” Senator Mike Rounds, a South Dakota Republican, said after the briefing Tuesday.

Rounds added that the ambassador didn’t discuss a timeline for when a trade deal with China could be finalized, nor a potential solution to the challenges facing farmers.

The Chinese are “using farmers as leverage in this negotiation,” Senator John Hoeven, a North Dakota Republican, said. “We have to make sure we keep our farmers in the game. We have to take steps so that they can’t exploit any weaknesses.”

Farming communities in the US, which largely backed Trump in the 2024 election, have been experiencing economic pain from his trade wars as export markets for crops shrink and federal safety-net programs are scaled back. That dynamic has left Republican lawmakers from major agricultural states frustrated by Trump’s trade policies — and fearing political blowback in next year’s midterm elections.

Republican Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa last week criticized a move by Argentina to sell soybeans to China — sidelining American farmers who usually dominate the trade — even as the US plans to extend a $20 billion swap line to Buenos Aires.

 

Trump to meet with Argentina’s Milei as soy sales could stymie $20 billion deal

• Milei seeks $20 billion U.S. credit swap amid Republican concerns
• Argentina’s soy sales to China impact U.S. farmers
• Mid-term elections could affect Milei’s economic gains
• Trump-Milei meeting set for October 14 at White House

U.S. President Donald Trump will meet with his Argentine counterpart Javier Milei in two weeks, Argentina said on Tuesday, as Milei seeks to clinch a credit swap line from the U.S. that has rankled some Republicans as the South American nation offloaded billions of dollars in soy to China.

The two will meet at the White House on October 14, during the week the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are set to convene in Washington.

The Argentine foreign ministry called the meeting a “new opportunity to continue strengthening the strategic partnership between both countries.”

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last week announced negotiations for a $20 billion swap line with Argentina’s central bank, which would provide access to much-needed dollars.

Argentina’s dollar bond prices and the peso rallied last week in the aftermath of Bessent’s announcement, and have fallen since – partly on the lack of details of the pledged U.S. support. On Tuesday bonds were flat to down 2 cents each, while the peso weakened 1.5%.

Libertarian Milei’s chainsaw-style austerity drive has helped address decades of solvency issues, but concerns over a cashflow crunch have persisted and analysts sayOctober’s mid-term elections could put his gains at risk.

The U.S. backing seems to have caused outcry among Trump’s inner circle. The Associated Press last week captured an image of Bessent reading a text message appearing to be from Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins, which called the deal unfortunate.

“We bailed out Argentina … and in return, the (Argentines) removed their export tariffs on grains, reducing their price, and sold a bunch of soybeans to China, at a time when we would normally be selling to China,” showed the message from acontact that appeared as “BR.”

Bessent and Rollins have not publicly commented on the text exchange, and their offices did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

In another bid to secure foreign currency and calm market jitters ahead of the midterms, Argentina’s government temporarily suspended export taxes on grains last week, with traders booking $7 billion in sales in just a few days.

Most of those cargoes, particularly of soybeans, will be headed for China, according to traders.

The deals are a blow to U.S. farmers, who are missing out on billions of dollars of sales halfway through their prime marketing season as unresolved trade talks between Washington and Beijingfreeze exports and South American suppliers step in to fill the gap.

 

Argentina 2026 Soy Crop Seen at 48.5m Tons Vs 50.3m Season Prior

Argentina is forecast to produce 48.5 million metric tons of soybeans in the 2025-26 season, down from 50.3 million in 2024-25, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said at a pre-season event.

 

USDA attaché sees China 2025/26 corn imports at 7 million T

Following are selected highlights from a report issued on Tuesday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service post in Beijing:

“Post forecasts MY (marketing year) 2025/26 China corn production at 298 MMT (million metric tons), up 3 MMT from MY2024/25. MY2025/26 corn imports are projected at 7 MMT, down sharply from 23 MMT in MY2023/24 as Beijing restricts grain imports. Wheat production is forecast at 140 MMT for MY2025/26, unchanged from MY2024/25, with imports projected at 6 MMT, up from 4.2 MMT as feed demand increases. Rice production remains stable at 146 MMT for MY2025/26, unchanged from MY2024/25, while imports increase to 2.8 MMT from 2.3 MMT due to competitive international prices. Sorghum imports are forecast to decline to 5 MMT in MY2025/26, with no U.S. shipments since March 2025, while barley imports remain at 10 MMT.”

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 7.13 Million Tons In September – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 7.13 MILLION TNS IN SEPTEMBER VERSUS 7.15 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.98 MILLION TNS IN SEPTEMBER VERSUS 2.10 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 7.27 MILLION TNS IN SEPTEMBER VERSUS 7.61 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

 

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Fall 31% Y/y So Far in Season to Sept. 28

The EU’s soft-wheat exports in the season that began July 1 totaled about 4.37m tons as of Sept. 28, compared with 6.36m tons for a similar period last year, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations included Saudi Arabia (638k tons), Morocco (371k tons) and Nigeria (279k tons)
• Barley exports were about 1.89m tons, up 23% y/y
• Corn imports totaled 3.45m tons, down 34% y/y
• NOTE: Click here for figures on oilseed trade
• NOTE: The commission said export data is incomplete for France since the start of 2024
  • Export data for Bulgaria and Ireland are incomplete since the start of the 2023-24 season
  • Commission said it is working to resolve these issues

 

South Africa Crops Body Lifts 2025 Corn-Crop Forecast by 2.4%

Crop Estimates Committee increases forecast for commercial-corn output in 2025 to 16.2 million tons.

• The harvest would be 26% bigger than a year earlier, it says in an emailed statement
• It raises the estimate for production of the white variety by 3.1% to 8.33 million tons, and increases the forecast for output of yellow corn by 1.7% to 7.85 million tons
• Non-commercial corn-crop estimate unchanged at 621,500 tons
• NOTE: White corn is used to make a staple porridge known as pap, while the yellow variety is mainly used in animal feed

 

Malaysia Sept. Palm Oil Exports Rise 9.62% M/m: Intertek

Following is a summary of Malaysia’s Sept. palm oil exports according to Intertek Testing Services.

• Total exports for Sept. 2025: 1.558m tons
• Crude palm oil exports: 312,830 tons, 20.1% of total

 

Malaysia Sept. Palm Oil Exports 1.440m Tons: AmSpec

Malaysia’s palm oil exports were 1.440m tons in September, according to AmSpec Agri.

• Palm oil exports rose 7.29% m/m

 

Indonesia’s January-August palm oil exports rise 13.56% y/y

Indonesia exported 16.20 million metric tons of crude and refined palm oil over the January to August period, up 13.56% from the same period last year, the statistics bureau said on Wednesday.

In August alone, palm oil exports were 2.56 million tons, the bureau said.

The bureau’s data excludes palm kernel oil, oleochemicals and biodiesel. GAPKI, Indonesia’s palm oil association, usually releases its own figures at a later date, covering more products, and so has different export figures.

Palm oil products were among the top contributors to Indonesia’s $5.49 billion trade surplus in August, the bureau said.

 

Russia to lower wheat export duty to 617.7 rubles per tonne from Oct 1 – AgMin

The duty on Russian wheat exports will be lowered to 617.7 rubles per tonne from October 1, compared to 655.6 rubles the week before, the Agriculture Ministry reported.

It will thus decrease by 5.8%.

The export duty for barley will remain at zero and will be lowered from 743.1 rubles per tonne to 716.9 rubles per tonne for corn.

These rates were calculated based on indicative prices of $225.8 per tonne for wheat, compared with $226 in the previous period, $200.4 per tonne versus $207.9 per tonne for barley, and $226 per tonne against $226 per tonne for corn.

The new rates will be in effect until October 7 inclusive.

Russia introduced a grain damper mechanism on June 2, 2021, which stipulates floating duties on the export of wheat, corn and barley and the return of funds received from them to subsidize agricultural producers. The duties are calculated weekly from indicators based on the prices of export contracts registered on the Moscow Exchange. Duty rates were initially calculated in dollars and in rubles since July 2022. The duty is 70% of the difference between the reference and indicative prices.

The reference price for calculating the export duty on wheat was initially 15,000 rubles per tonne and the reference price on barley and corn was 13,875 rubles per tonne. These were raised in June 2023 to 17,000 rubles per tonne and 15,875 rubles per tonne, respectively. The prices were raised again on June 28, 2024, to 18,000 rubles per tonne for wheat and 16,875 rubles per tonne for barley and corn. From July 24, 2025, the base price for barley was raised to 17,875 rubles per tonne, while the wheat price remains unchanged.

 

EU-27 corn production down amid poor crop conditions in Southeastern Europe

2025/26 EU-27 CORN PRODUCTION: 56.5 [54.3-58.8] MILLION TONS, DOWN 1.5% FROM LAST UPDATE

Poor crops conditions in Southeastern Europe decreased 2025/26 EU-27 corn production to 56.5 [54.3-58.8] million tons. Over the past two weeks, cooler conditions prevailed in Western Europe, while Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria had mixed weather. Rainfall surpluses (20-30 mm above normal) occurred mostly in northern Italy and southern Germany. Persistent drought in Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary is adversely affecting crops, with satellite data confirming below-average crop conditions across the three countries.

According to the latest weather forecasts, cooler weather is expected to persist across Europe, with intermittent rainfall in Poland, northern Germany, and Romania potentially disrupting remaining harvest activities.

 

Canada rapeseed production up on supportive satellite data

2025/26 CANADA RAPESEED PRODUCTION: 19.1 [18.1–20.1] MILLION TONS, UP 2% FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Canada rapeseed production is increased to 19.1 [18.1-20.1] million tons, amid favorable satellite imagery profile and harvest reports. According to recent provincial crop reports, harvest is 68% complete for rapeseed crops in major producing rapeseed province of Saskatchewan as of September 23, and 45% complete in Alberta as of September 24.

Over the past two weeks, warm and mostly dry weather has prevailed across the country, supporting the ongoing harvest. Crop vegetation densities (NDVI) derived from satellite imagery are above average levels in Manitoba (MB), Saskatchewan (SK), indicating overall healthy crop conditions during the growing period. According to LSEG’s latest weather forecast, warmth is likely to persist across the prairies throughout the next two weeks, with rainfall surpluses mostly in MB. Harvest operations are likely to end on schedule thanks to the absence of extreme weather.

 

Russian wheat production steady as spring wheat harvest progresses

2025/26 RUSSIA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 84.7 [83.0-88.2] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Russian wheat production remains unchanged at 84.7 [83.0-88.2] million tons (MMT), 60.3 MMT of winter wheat and 24.4 MMT of spring wheat. The latest WASDE report from September 12 estimated Russian wheat production at 85 MMT, slightly above our current estimate. Our wheat production estimate does not include occupied Ukrainian Oblasts.

Warm and dry weather prevailed in the European part throughout the winter wheat growing season, causing severe drought and yield losses especially in the Rostov region. Despite that, the Stavropol region in North Caucasian District is expected to have record high yields since 2016. On the other hand, favorable weather conditions over the Ural and Siberian Districts resulted in favorable spring crop conditions, as indicated by above-average vegetation densities (NDVIs). LSEG’s overall yield estimate for Russian winter wheat is set at 3.98 t/ha, and for spring wheat at 2.22 t/ha, respectively.

Cool and dry conditions prevailed across the country last week, supporting the final stages of spring wheat harvest. The two-week weather forecast indicates continued moderate temperatures and dry conditions, particularly in the Southern District, raising concerns about insufficient soil moisture for the upcoming planting season. Key winter wheat regions require decent precipitation to restore soil moisture levels and support the upcoming winter crop planting and early development.

 

Brazil Regulator Agrees to Keep Amazon Soy Ban Through 2025

Brazil’s antitrust regulator ruled in favor of major soybean traders, saying companies including Cargill Inc. and Bunge Global SA are allowed to continue a pact that boycotts crops from recently deforested land in the Amazon.

A majority of regulator Cade’s counselors voted Tuesday to lift through the remainder of 2025 a preventive measure enacted in August that suspended the moratorium. Activities related to the moratorium, such as the auditing of soy suppliers, may continue through the end of the year.

The decision gives companies and government agencies enough time to deliberate and reach an understanding, said counselor José Levi Mello do Amaral Júnior. His winning vote was followed by another three of the regulators’ six members.

Still, the antitrust authority will continue an investigation on whether the agreement — a public commitment by traders to avoid sourcing soybeans from land deforested in the Amazon after 2008 — created a cartel.

While not definitive, the ruling reduces immediate environmental risks as Brazil prepares to host the COP30 climate summit in Belém in November.

The decision comes after an appeal filed by industry group Abiove, which represents traders such as Cargill, Bunge, Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. and Louis Dreyfus Co. The traders argued that the moratorium is essential to preserve the Amazon forest.

Abiove said in a statement following the decision that it “remains available to collaborate with the competent authorities in order to promote legal certainty and regulatory predictability in the sector.”

 

USDA migrates data archive to new website, dropping Cornell’s Mann Library

Archived crop and livestock reports from the U.S. Department of Agriculture were set to transfer to a new government website on Wednesday with the agency’s existing online archive, hosted by Cornell University’s Mann Library, decommissioned, the USDA and a Cornell official said on Tuesday.

The USDA’s online Economics, Statistics and Market Information System, an archive of USDA reports dating to 1973, will move to the USDA’s National Agricultural Library.

Two reports released by the USDA on Tuesday — its quarterly grain stocks and annual small grains reports — said archived editions were stored on the legacy Cornell site. But a Cornell representative said the USDA reports would no longer be available from the Mann Library site starting on October 1.

Many of the USDA’s major market-sensitive reports, including its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, a key reference for the grains trade, had already moved on Tuesday to the new website.

The new platform also includes reports from the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service on quarterly U.S. grain stocks, cattle on feed, and weekly U.S. crop progress reports, among other topics.

With the prospect of a government shutdown looming on Tuesday, a USDA spokesperson did not comment specifically on whether the agency’s new platform would remain accessible or would be among the services disrupted.

Other USDA sub-agencies, including the Foreign Agricultural Service, the Economic Research Service and the Agricultural Marketing Service, will upload new reports to their respective websites, a note on the Cornell website said.

USDA announced in April that it planned to migrate its report archives from Cornell’s Mann Library and onto an alternative platform as a way to “modernize its processes,” without detailing what that would entail.

 

 

 

 

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