Global Ag News For Sept 30.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Poland’s 2025 Wheat Harvest Seen Bigger Than Previously Forecast

Poland’s wheat harvest is seen at 13.4m tons this year, up from a previous estimate of 12.8m tons, according to a report from the country’s central statistical office.

• Barley output is seen at 3m tons, up from previous outlook of 2.8m tons
• Total grain production is estimated at 37.1m tons
• Production of sugar beets is seen at 16.9m tons, around 8% lower than the previous year
• The rapeseed crop is estimated at 3.6m tons, steady with previous projection

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1/2 in SRW, down 1/4 in HRW, down 1 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 3/4; Soybeans down 3 3/4; Soymeal down $1.00; Soyoil up 0.03.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 2 3/4 in SRW, up 1 in HRW, unchanged in HRS; Corn is down 2; Soybeans down 7 3/4; Soymeal down $0.40; Soyoil down 0.62.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 15 1/4 in SRW, down 11 3/4 in HRW, down 12 in HRS; Corn is down 1/2; Soybeans down 47 3/4; Soymeal down $14.60; Soyoil down 2.42.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 6.3% in SRW, down 9.4% in HRW, down 4.7% in HRS; Corn is down 8.4%; Soybeans up 0.8%; Soymeal down 14.0%; Soyoil up 23.1%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 25) Soybeans down 2 yuan; Soymeal down 4; Soyoil down 40; Palm oil down 44; Corn down 24 — Malaysian Palm is down 34.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 34 ringgit (-0.78%) at 4351.

There were changes in registrations (30 Soymeal). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 153 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 75 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 29 were: SRW Wheat up 3,911 contracts, HRW Wheat up 737, Corn up 1,724, Soybeans down 2,786, Soymeal down 6,185, Soyoil down 18,252.

 

DRY CONDITIONS COULD PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA THIS WEEK AND INTO THE NEXT

What to Watch:

• Dry weather to prevail across much of Brazil and Argentina
• Shifting temperature pattern ahead

 

Heavy rains ahead for China and India will cause regional flooding problems

What to Watch:

• Warm weather will expand across China this week before a cold front begins to advance from the north, bringing flooding rains along the frontal zone in the North China Plain
• The Indian monsoon season will go out with a bang as widespread rains will hit the country into mid-October, with the heaviest totals and flooding issues concentrated in the east
• As Typhoon Bualoi moves inland over north/central Vietnam, drier weather is ahead while high rainfall will temporarily shift into Indonesia/Malaysia

  

Brazil Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

Brazil Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias: Spotty showers northwest through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

Northern Plains: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday. Outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday.  

Midwest West: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday.

Midwest East: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday. Outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

 

The player sheet for 9/29 had funds: net buyers of 3,000 corn, sellers of 1,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,000 soymeal, and sellers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 135,660 metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico and 110,668 tons of corn to undisclosed destinations for shipment in the 2025/26 marketing year. 

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 157,000 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China and the United States.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase and import about 255,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat, which can be sourced from optional origins.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 1.527m Tons of Corn for Export, 594k of Soybeans

In week ending Sept. 25, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Wheat: 739k tons vs 940k the previous wk, 552k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,527k tons vs 1,386k the previous wk, 1,150k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 594k tons vs 566k the previous wk, 683k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Sept. 25

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Sept. 25 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for Germany-bound shipments made up 129k tons of the 594k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, Nigeria led in wheat

 

USDA FAS Maintains China Soy Import Est., Below WASDE Outlook

China’s soybean imports in the 2025-26 season that begins Oct. 1 are seen at 106m tons, relatively steady y/y, on limited crushing growth and Beijing’s continued efforts to restrain imports, according to a report from USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service.

• The agency’s estimate, unchanged from its last report, is below USDA’s latest official forecast of 112m tons in the WASDE
• NOTE: China has so far avoided purchases from the US for the new season amid tariffs and trade tensions
• “Industry contacts believe that the United States and China are likely to come to some sort of agreement to allow some volumes of US soybeans to enter the Chinese market in the first half of MY 25/26, but are preparing for alternative scenarios,” the report said
• The agency cut its estimate for China rapeseed imports in 2025-26 to 3.1m tons, below the official USDA estimate of 4.1m tons, after Beijing slapped temporary anti-dumping duties on Canadian shipments

 

Brazil 2025/26 Soy Sowing 3.2% Done as of Sept. 25: Agrural

Sowing of Brazil’s soybean harvest reached 3.2% of the estimated area, compared to 0.9% a week earlier and 2% in the same period last year, amid good rainfall in the main producing regions and the end of the drought period in a greater number of states, according to an emailed report by consultancy AgRural.

• 2025/26 summer corn sowing reached 32% of the estimated area for the Center-South of Brazil, from 25% a week earlier and 30% in the same period last year

 

Indonesia’s Palm Oil Exports Seen Rising on India Demand: Gapki

Palm oil exports from Indonesia may rise to 30 million tons in 2025 from 29.5 million tons a year earlier, helped by higher purchases from top buyer India, according to Eddy Martono, chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association, also known as Gapki.

• NOTE: Martono had forecast exports to fall this year on higher domestic consumption, helped by an increase in biodiesel use
• Exports are estimated to be at least 2 million tons per month between August and December, Martono said on the sidelines of Globoil, a vegetable oil conference in Mumbai, last week
• Total palm oil output in Indonesia, the world’s biggest grower, may rise to 56 million tons in 2026, from an estimated 55 million tons a year earlier: Gapki
  • Palm oil exports will stay flat in 2026 compared with a year earlier
• Separately, the Indonesian government hasn’t decided yet on the B50 biodiesel mandate, Martono said, adding that Gapki will support authorities if they implement the program

 

Malaysia Sept. Palm Oil Exports 1.440m Tons: AmSpec

Malaysia’s palm oil exports were 1.440m tons in September, according to AmSpec Agri.

• Palm oil exports rose 7.29% m/m

 

Indonesia Raises CPO Reference Price to $963.61/Ton for October

The trade ministry raises October crude palm oil reference price to $963.61 a ton from $954.71 a ton in September, according to a decree posted on the website.

• The reference price will keep CPO export tax at $124/ton for October
• NOTE: Exporters must also pay additional CPO levy at 10% of the reference price

 

India Sees Increase in Rice Sowing Area, Oilseeds Planting Drops

India’s rice sowing in the kharif season until Sept. 26 rose 1.4% to 44.2 million hectares (109 million acres) from a year earlier, the farm ministry said Monday.

• Pulses sowing was 11.99 million hectares vs 11.89 million y/y
• Oilseeds sowing area was 19 million hectares vs 20.05 million y/y
• Sugarcane sowing area was 5.9 million hectares vs 5.72 million hectares y/y
• Cotton sowing was over an area of almost 11 million hectares vs 11.3 million y/y
• Total crop area sowing was 112.07 million hectares this season vs 111.4 million y/y

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Average price in PR in September is the lowest since Apr/24

Wheat values in Paraná registered in September the lowest level since April 2024, in real terms. In Rio Grande do Sul, the monthly average price was the lowest since January this year.

The pressure comes from the harvesting progress of the new crop in Brazil and also from the decreases in the international market and in dollar values. In addition, the temporary suspension of retenciones (export taxes) in Argentina led buyers to reduce quotations, forcing sellers to accept lower values.

In September/25 (up to Sept. 26), the monthly average of wheat prices in Rio Grande do Sul was BRL 1,262.67 per ton, downing 2.2% against August, 9.2% in relation to that in September/24, in real terms (IGP-DI), and the lowest value since January 2025. In Paraná, the average was BRL 1,354.35/ton, 5.5% down in one month, 10.3% in one year and the lowest value since April/24. In São Paulo, prices averaged BRL 1,259.87/ton, -12% and -19.2% in the same comparisons and the lowest value since October/23. As for Santa Catarina, the average was BRL 1,364.79/ton in September, decreasing 4.7% compared to August and 10.9% against that in the same month last year – also the lowest since October/23. The US dollar dropped 1.35% against Real in the same period, at BRL 5.372 in the partial of September.

 

Russia expects China to open market to winter wheat, barley, fuel pellets – Reshetnikov

Russia has prepared a number of initiatives to increase trade with China, and is counting on the country to open its market to imports of Russian fuel pellets and lift restrictions on imports of winter wheat and barley, Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said.

“The trade turnover [between Russia and China] set a record last year, exceeding $244 billion. Now we are looking for mutually beneficial decisions together so that this figure continues to grow further. On our part, we have prepared several initiatives: to lift restrictions on shipments of Russian winter wheat and barley, and open the Chinese market to our environmentally friendly fuel pellets,” the Economic Development Ministry reported Reshetnikov as saying at a meeting of the sub-commission for trade and economic cooperation in Beijing on Sunday.

He said China classifies pellets as waste, so they cannot be imported at this point, but “we understand that this is environmentally friendly fuel and we have supplied and supply it to various countries in the world,” so this issue will be worked out.

“Potential trade just for this item is estimated at $250 million,” Reshetnikov said. “As soon as we open this market [China], our wood processors will have the opportunity to reduce prices for other products and become more competitive, so this is extremely important for us,” he said.

The construction of the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, with capacity to transport 50 billion cubic meters per year, will also support the development of trade, Reshetnikov said.

He also said that direct Chinese investment in Russia grew by 13% last year. New joint investment projects are being launched in various sectors, including the chemical and metal industries, infrastructure, automobile manufacturing, agriculture, logistics and information technology, among others.

Russia and China signed a new agreement on promotion and mutual protection of investment during a meeting between the two countries’ leaders in May.

“The Russian side plans to complete all the necessary procedures for the agreement to go into effect by the end of this year,” the Economic Development Ministry said.

 

India’s Best Monsoon in Five Years Fuels Hopes for Good Harvests

India witnessed its strongest monsoon in five years, lifting prospects for crops such as rice and pulses and raising hopes that food prices may ease further.

Rainfall from June to September, which irrigates about half of the country’s farmland and is important for the next planting season, was 937.2 millimeters. That was 8% higher than the long-term average, and the best rainy season since 2020, according to data compiled by the India Meteorological Department.

The early arrival of the monsoon this year, followed by good precipitation, helped farmers allocate more land to crops such as rice, pulses and sugar cane, according to the farm ministry.

That could mean better harvests and a further reduction in food inflation, which contracted 0.7% in August. Stronger agricultural output could also prompt the government to ease its restrictions on exports of wheat and sugar.

 

France Targets 60% Share of Morocco’s Milling Wheat Imports

Morocco is projected to import more than 3 million tons of French milling wheat, a fifth of France’s total exports of the grain during the 2025-26 season, industry group France Intercereales says in an emailed statement.

• This means 60% of Morocco’s milling wheat imports will be sourced from France
• Intercereales expects Morocco to import a total of 5m tons of milling wheat, 1m tons each of durum wheat and barley and at least 2.5m tons of corn
• The country has already purchased 1m tons of French milling wheat this year
• NOTE: France Intercereales issued the statement ahead of an annual meeting with Moroccan importers next week in Casablanca
• France Intercereales projects 15m tons of milling wheat exports, of which 8m tons will be outside the European Union

 

China’s Pork Prices Slump With Weak Holiday Demand Boost

China’s pork prices hit fresh lows as a bleak demand outlook for the upcoming Golden Week holiday offered little relief to a sector grappling with excess supply and sluggish consumption.

Wholesale pork prices were on track to reach their lowest level in 18 months amid an oversupply of meat and weaker-than-expected demand. That suggests recent government efforts to curb production have yet to bear fruit.

Millions are expected to travel, shop and dine during China’s eight-day Golden Week holiday starting Wednesday, which usually boosts economic activity across the country. But any revival in demand for the nation’s most widely-consumed meat appears limited since wholesalers and retailers have yet to undertake large-scale stockpiling as they typically do in this period.

Beijing has been pushing top pig producers to cut capacity to tackle oversupply and bolster pork prices, an important component of the consumer price index in the Asian nation. The sector is key to easing deflation risks and its troubles underscore an uncertain outlook for the world’s second-largest economy.

Pork consumption improved a little in September but hog supplies have remained ample at the same time, Guangda Futures wrote in a note this week. It will therefore be difficult for prices to rebound significantly in the fourth quarter, it said.

Sow herds by end of August stayed high at 40.38 million heads, down only 0.1% from a month earlier, according to the latest government data. China’s most traded pig futures on Dalian Commodity Exchange continued to fall after declining as much as 3% on Monday.

Downstream demand could be realized gradually since there will be more occasions over the holiday when pork can be consumed, China-based commodity consultancy Mysteel said in a note over the weekend. But time is running out.

Pork prices have plunged 21% in the past year, with farmers suffering average losses of 162 yuan ($22.745) per pig.

 

Bunge Plans Update on 2025 Outlook Resulting From Viterra Deal

Bunge Global SA plans to provide an update of its 2025 outlook as a result of its combination with Viterra on Oct. 15, the company said in a statement Monday.

• A conference call is slated for 7 a.m. Central Time that day
• NOTE: Bunge completed its takeover of Viterra in early July

 

 

 

 

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