Global Ag News For Sept 29.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Brazil’s cotton output seen down 7% in 2025/26, StoneX says

Brazilian cotton production is expected to total 3.72 million metric tons in the 2025/26 harvest, consultancy StoneX said in a statement on Friday, representing a 7% fall from the previous season.

The drop in production is mainly due to a decline in the planted area, StoneX said, which was forecast to slip around 75,000 hectares (185,329 acres) to 1.44 million hectares.

The planting outlook is favored by the increase in rainfall in Brazil’s Mato Grosso state, which should ensure an adequate window for soybeans and then for cotton in the second crop, StoneX said. But producers may grapple with lower margins.

“Although the outlook for rain in the center-west is positive for planting, the reduction in area signals the need for greater rationalization on the part of producers,” StoneX analyst Raphael Bulascoschi said in the statement.

“Cotton remains competitive in the international market, but the sector is expected to face tighter margins, making efficient cost and marketing management essential,” Bulascoschi said.

Brazil’s cotton exports for the 2024/25 season are now forecast at 2.95 million tons, StoneX added, with more activity expected in the fourth quarter of the year.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are unchanged in SRW, unchanged in HRW, down 1 in HRS; Corn is down 2; Soybeans down 3 3/4; Soymeal up $2.20; Soyoil down 0.47.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 9 1/4 in SRW, up 3 1/2 in HRW, up 2 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1; Soybeans down 1/2; Soymeal down $3.50; Soyoil up 0.26.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 14 1/2 in SRW, down 14 1/4 in HRW, down 13 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1/4; Soybeans down 44 1/2; Soymeal down $12.20; Soyoil down 2.42.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 5.7% in SRW, down 9.6% in HRW, down 4.9% in HRS; Corn is down 8.2%; Soybeans up 1.2%; Soymeal down 12.1%; Soyoil up 24.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 25) Soybeans down 9 yuan; Soymeal down 12; Soyoil down 38; Palm oil down 32; Corn down 5 — Malaysian Palm is down 11.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 11 ringgit (-0.25%) at 4385.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 153 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 45 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 26 were: SRW Wheat down 1,716 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,178, Corn down 11,739, Soybeans up 3,828, Soymeal down 8,484, Soyoil down 9,102.

 

WET SPELLS IN CENTRAL PAMPAS, DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST IN BRAZIL

What to Watch:

• Wet weather in central Pampas
• Dry in Brazil

Northern Plains: Warm and dry weather over the weekend was favorable for maturing corn and soybeans as well as early harvest. A front will move into the region on Wednesday and may produce some showers, with better chances for Friday into the weekend. Any rainfall is likely to be disruptive to the harvest and not favorable for even immature crops.

Central/Southern Plains: It was warm and dry over the weekend. That continues for most of the week, favorable for fieldwork of all kinds. A front will move into the region on Friday and may produce showers through the weekend and into next week as well. Any rainfall would not be favorable for harvest, but would keep soil moisture fairly high for winter wheat planting and establishment.

Midwest: It was warm and dry over the weekend. That largely continues throughout the week. A front will try to produce showers as it gets into the region over the weekend. Rainfall could be disruptive to maturing crops and harvest.

Delta: Warm and dry weather over the weekend was favorable for harvest, but not for the river systems, which are drying back out again after getting a nice bump from last week’s rainfall. Largely drier conditions in the forecast would cause transportation issues for much of the fall season.

Brazil: A front moved into southern Brazil over the weekend and has stalled. It will produce rainfall there throughout this week, favorable for planting and early growth. Central Brazil has gotten drier and only spotty showers are in the forecast through next week, unfavorable for soybean planting after a round of rain got progress going well ahead of schedule in the region. Seeds that have been planted are at risk of germinating and quickly dying over the next couple of weeks.

Argentina: A front moved through with more rainfall over the weekend, continuing to sustain good soil moisture for early planting and establishment. Drier conditions are forecast for most of this week with another front moving through this coming weekend. Some showers may fall over far northern areas as well. Soybean planting may begin as early as this week, but most areas will wait for significant planting later on in October.

Europe: Isolated showers moved through southern areas over the weekend, including in Spain which has been very hot and dry lately. Some showers continue over eastern areas of the continent for much of the week, particularly in the Balkans which need rain. After rains move out of Spain on Monday, drier conditions are forecast there as well.

Black Sea: A system moving through southeastern Europe is promoting more widespread rainfall this week, particularly in Ukraine. Some areas remain very dry though for winter wheat planting and establishment. Drier weather is forecast for next week and beyond, which may mean only limited benefit from this week’s rainfall.

Australia: The country has gone into a drier stretch again, which is somewhat troubling for winter wheat and canola going through their reproductive stages. Some showers will go through southeastern areas, but most of the country will be dry this week. Western areas could see some beneficial rainfall this coming weekend, however.

China: Weather continues to be mostly favorable for corn and soybean harvest in northeast China. Central China continues to see occasional showers this week, favorable for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment.

 

The player sheet for 9/26 had funds: net sellers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 8,500 corn, sellers of 3,000 soymeal, and buyers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• FEED CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has purchased a total of about 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender seeking up to 140,000 tons on Friday.
• RUSSIAN WHEAT EXPORT FORECAST UPDATE: The Sovecon agriculture consultancy made its first wheat export downgrade in the 2025/26 exporting season on Friday, by about 0.7% to 43.4 million metric tons from 43.7 million tons, after exports slowed by 29% in July-September. Sovecon sees total grain exports slightly higher at 52.5 mln tons, compared to 52.3 mln tons previously.

 PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 157,000 metric tons of rice to be sourced from China and the United States
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase and import about 255,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat, which can be sourced from optional origins
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

Ukraine Completes Harvest of Wheat and Barley, Ministry Says

Ukraine harvested 22.5m tons of wheat and 5.3m tons of barley from all planted areas, Economy Ministry says.

• As of Sept. 26, total grain crop was 30.4m tons, down 40% y/y
• Harvested from 7.2m hectares (17.8m acres), which is 63% of total grain area, Economy Ministry says on website
• The total includes:
  • 22.5m tons of wheat, up 0.9% y/y
  • 5.3m tons of barley, down 3.6% y/y
  • 964,200 tons of corn compared with 4.7m tons last year
• Rapeseed harvest 3.3m tons, down 6% y/y
• Soybeans harvest 1.5m, down 57% y/y
• Sunflower 4.1m tons, down 38% y/y

 

Wheat Slides on EU Wheat Production Forecast, Harvest Weather

Wheat futures fell in Chicago after the European Union, one of the world’s top exporters, raised its soft-wheat production forecast.

• The soft-wheat forecast was raised to 132.6m tons from 128.1m tons previously by the European Commission on Thursday
• Wheat prices were down as much has 1.5% on Friday, after a 1.4% gain in the previous session
• AgResource Co. said favorable weather was also helping send prices lower “as the market prepares for an expanding Midwest harvest”

 

India Considering Buying US Corn for Producing Ethanol, ET Says

India is considering importing US corn for the production of ethanol and boosting energy purchases as part of efforts to secure a trade deal, the Economic Times reported, citing officials familiar with negotiations.

• Washington has also been pushing New Delhi to buy its soyabean and corn
• India wants the US to lift 25% additional tariffs linked to Russian oil purchases

 

SovEcon Trims 2025-26 Russia Wheat Export Outlook to 43.4m Tons

SovEcon cut its forecast for Russia’s 2025-26 wheat exports by 0.3m tons from earlier this month amid sluggish demand and weak early season shipments, according to a report.

• Exports from July to September have been just 11m tons, the weakest start since the 2022-23 season when Russia’s war with Ukraine began
• Expects shipments for the period to July to December to be below 30m tons
• “Exports may remain slow through October before facing seasonal weather disruptions and stronger competition from Australia and Argentina later in the year”: Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon
• Barley export forecast was raised to 3.4m tons from 3.2m tons
• Corn exports seen steady at 2.8m tons

 

Global Palm, Soybean Oil Prices to Rise on Shortages: Mielke

Global palm and soybean oil prices will rise by $100-$150 a ton, if not more, in the first half of next year on concerns a global vegetable oil supplies will tighten during Jan.-March 2026, according to Thomas Mielke, editor and chief executive of Oil World.

• Soybean oil prices will rise from the current price of $1,050 per ton free on board in Argentina while benchmark refined palm oil prices in Malaysia will climb from $1,080, Mielke said at the sidelines of Globoil, a vegetable oil conference in Mumbai, on Friday
• Palm prices could rise sharply if the Indonesian government’s measures to seize palm plantations has a negative effect on production
  • Soybean oil supplies could tighten due to higher biofuel demand in Brazil

 

Brazil farmers plant 4.16% of soy area, fastest on record -Patria

Planting of Brazil’s new 2025/26 soybean crop is off to a fast start, driven primarily by progress of the sowing work in the state of Parana, where rainfall has been consistent and forecasts are favorable, agribusiness consultancy Patria Agronegocios said on Friday.

Farmers have so far planted 4.16% of the expected soy area, compared with 0.54% at the same time last year. It is the fastest start to the soy sowing season on record, said Patria Agronegocios director Matheus Pereira.

 

Argentina has $4.9 billion of corn, soy byproduct left to sell after trading frenzy

Argentina has $4.93 billion worth of soy meal, soy oil and corn left to trade from the 2024/25 season, after a brief tax pause triggered a two-day trading frenzy this week, data from the Rosario grains exchange (BCR) showed on Friday.

This includes $1.76 billion for soy meal, $1.38 billion for soy oil, and $1.79 billion for corn, according to a BCR report, which said these represented 7.6 million metric tons of soy byproduct and 8.9 million tons of corn still available.

Argentina is a major world supplier of corn and the largest exporter of soybean oil and meal.

Its government this week briefly paused an export tax on some of the country’s biggest exports as it looks to shore up reserves foreign currency to stabilize the peso.

The move sparked a brief but intense wave of sales.

By Wednesday night, the government said exporters had declared $7 billion in foreign sales, the cap which prompted the government to resume charging the taxes. Export duties now stand at 24.5% for soy byproducts and 9.5% for corn.

 

Russia raises emergency level in major agriculture region

Russia’s government has decided to declare a federal level emergency in the agriculture sector of the southern Rostov region as bad weather has caused massive loss of crops, local authorities said.

In June, Rostov declared a regional state of agricultural emergency due to drought, which enables farmers to seek compensation for losses.

Yuri Slyusar, Rostov governor, said that the federal level emergency would allow new measures to support farmers.

“We discussed the emergency in detail at the highest level – with the President, with the Minister of Agriculture Oksana Lut,” Slyusar wrote on the Telegram messaging app.

“The first result was an increase in the limits on preferential loans. Now the key issue is the prolongation of almost 300 existing loans for farms that will not be able to repay them.”

Around 1 million hectares of crops were lost or damaged by drought or frosts in the major agriculture region this year, according to the local government’s estimate.

The Sovecon consultancy said that for the first time since 2015, Rostov will not be Russia’s top wheat-producing region due to bad weather this year, ceding its position to neighbouring Stavropol.

 

USDA attaché maintains China 2025/26 soybean imports at 106 million tons

Following are selected highlights from a report issued on Friday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service post in Beijing:

“Post raises its forecast for marketing year 25/26 soybean production slightly to 19.9 million metric tons on generally favorable weather conditions in northern China and slightly higher planted area. As of September 11, China had not made purchases of new crop U.S. soybeans and has continued to rely on South American origins. Post lowers its forecast for rapeseed imports based on anti-dumping duties on Canadian canola. Palm oil imports are also reduced as high prices have made palm oil less competitive in China’s flagging edible oil market… Post maintains its soybean import forecast at 106 MMT for MY 25/26, unchanged from the previous report. For MY 24/25, Post raises its estimate for soybean imports to 107 MMT based on export totals reported by major exporters. The relatively stable forecast for soybean imports is linked to restrained growth in crushing demand at 2% and continued efforts by Beijing to limit import growth.”

 

Malaysia Palm Reserves to Fall From 20-Month High on Weak Output

Malaysia’s palm oil inventories are set to decline from a 20-month high as output is expected to drop from a seasonal peak and top buyer India may ramp up buying for festivals, according to Ahmad Parveez Ghulam Kadir, director general of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board.

• Reserves may slump 23% from last month to 1.7m tons by the end of this year, he said on the sidelines of Globoil, a vegetable oil conference, in Mumbai on Friday
  • NOTE: Inventories totaled 2.2m tons as of Aug. 31, the highest level since December 2023, according to MPOB data
• Exports from the Southeast Asian nation are seen rising to 17.3m tons in 2025 from 16.9m tons a year earlier, he said
  • That compares with 17m tons expected earlier
• Production won’t be more than 19.5m tons in 2025, compared with 19.3m tons a year earlier
• Separately, the MPOB is seeking 1.4 billion ringgit ($332 million) in government funds over five years from 2026 to offer subsidized loans to farmers for replanting
  • Malaysia currently provides 100 million ringgit a year in subsidized loans to farmers
• The board is preparing a proposal for government-backed loans to help farmers cover living costs for three years after replanting, before new trees start yielding fruit

 

US Mulls 0% Tariff on Malaysian Auto Parts, Furniture: Bernama

The US is considering granting tariff exemptions on Malaysia’s furniture as well as automotive and aerospace parts and components, Bernama reported, citing Malaysia’s chief negotiator for the tariff talks.

• The US is also weighing a zero tariff rate for Malaysia’s commodity products, including palm oil and cocoa, Mastura Ahmad Mustafa said in an interview with Bernama on Friday

 

China’s end-August sow herd at 40.38 million heads, down 0.1% m/m

CHINA’S END-AUG SOW HERD AT 40.38 MILLION HEAD, DOWN 0.1% M/M

 

French Corn Harvest Advances Ahead of 5-Year Average: AgriMer

France’s corn harvest was 14% complete as of Sept. 22, up from 5% in the previous week, FranceAgriMer data show.

• That’s faster than the previous season and slightly above the five-year average
• 62% of the corn crop was rated in good or very good condition, steady from the previous week, but well below the 79% level by a similar time last season

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: For the industry, most part of margins is coming from soy oil

The participation of soybean oil in the profit margin of the crushing industry (crush margin) hit the record of 50.3% on September 25, surpassing the share of soybean meal (49.7%). It is an unprecedented fact, taking into account Cepea calculations based on prices for soybean, soy meal and soy oil in São Paulo.

As a comparison, in 2024, the average participation of soybean oil in the margin was by only 37.8%, and of soybean meal, 62.2%. It is worth noting that, for every soy ton crushed, roughly 78% are equivalent to soybean meal and 19% to soy oil.

This scenario is related to more significant price drops observed for soy meal and soybean this week. As for soybean oil, prices also moved down, but less significantly. The demand for this product, especially to produce biodiesel, continues growing in both Brazil and the US, which has sustained quotations over the last months.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Prices are distinct among regions, but drops prevail

Corn prices have presented distinct trends among regions surveyed by Cepea; however, decreases prevail. They are related to the fact that consumers are away from closing trades, claiming to have inventories for immediate needs.

Price drops ended up limited by the fact that sellers are unwilling to trade, in general, since they are focused on the summer crop planting and that they have part of the second crop in stocks.

At ports, increases abroad and of dollar quotations sustained prices – still, they are below-expected. As for exports, the volume still needs to gain pace in order to reach Conab estimates for 2024/25 (40 million tons). So far, however, Brazil shipped 17 million tons from February/25 to the partial of September/25.

 

Grassi Makes Offer to Vicentin Creditors as $1.3b Cramdown Opens

Grains brokerage Grassi has published the terms of its restructuring offer to holders of $1.3 billion of unsecured debt of distressed Argentine soy exporter Vicentin, as a legal process called cramdown officially opens, Grassi said in a statement.

• Deadline to gather creditor approval is Oct. 31: statement
• NOTE: The other competitors that can offer in the cramdown are Bunge, a JV between LDC and Molinos Agro and cooperative Union Agricola de Avellaneda

 

US Pork Production Falls 1.4% This Week, Beef Rises: USDA

US federally inspected pork production falls to 537m pounds for the week ending Sept. 27 from 544m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Hog slaughter down 2% from a week ago to 2.537m head
• Beef production up 0.8% from a week ago, cattle slaughter rises 0.5%
• For the year, beef production is 4.4% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 2.1% below

 

 

 

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