Written Commentary
ADM Exceeds 5M Regenerative Agriculture Acreage Gal
September 9, 2025
- Quieter end to the week after central bank bonanza, digest BoJ policy meeting, UK GfK Consumer Confidence, Retail Sales and PSNB; Canada PPI and Retail Sales, Eurozone Consumer Confidence and bevvy of Fed and ECB speakers
- UK: Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence send divergent signals on consumer outlook; warm weather gives big boost to Sales, govt gloomy messaging weighing heavily on sentiment
- Japan: BoJ’s Ueda perhaps a little less hawkish than anticipated, heavy emphasis on JPY and US economy performance; October hike less likely than December
- Next week schedule heavy on surveys (PMIs, Ifo, US Consumer Confidence), light on major data: US Durables, Home Sales and Australia, Brazil and Mexico CPI; raft of central bank speakers
EVENTS PREVIEW
A heavily front loaded data and event schedule has the BoJ policy meeting, Japan national CPI, UK GfK Consumer Confidence, Retail Sales and PSNB, German PPI and French Business Confidence to digest, while ahead lie Eurozone Consumer Confidence, Canadian PPI and Retail Sales and some ECB, Fed and BoC speakers. Next week’s schedule is rather more modest than this, dominated by surveys with G7 and India ‘flash’ PMIs, German Ifo, UK CBI and EC Confidence measures. The US also has New and Pending Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders and final Q2GDP, while France and Spain have preliminary September CPI, with Australia, Brazil and Mexico also looking to inflation data. Australia’s RBA is expected to hold rates at 4.35%, even though monthly CPI (published the day after the RBA meeting) is expected to fall to 3.1% y/y from 3.5%, and therefore close to the top of the RBA’s 2.0-3.0% target range. There are numerous Fed and ECB speakers, along with the minutes of the BoJ’s July rate hike meeting. In the commodities space, there are the USDA’s monthly reports on Livestock and Agricultural Prices.
** U.K. – Aug Retail Sales, Sep GfK Consumer Confidence **
– Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence were notable for the divergent signals on th economy. On the one hand Retail Sales were a good deal stronger than expected at 1.0% m/m, above all given the upward revision to July, with the strength above all paced by Clothing & Footwear sales, with warm weather doubtless giving a boost after a very weak outturn in June. By contrast the new government’s gloomy messaging on the October budget has clearly hit Consumer Confidence, with the sub-index on the Climate for Major Purchases sliding to -23 from -13, and 1-yr Personal Finance Expectations dropping to -3 from 6, and 1-yr Economy outlook plummeting to -27 from -15.
** Japan – BoJ policy meeting **
– For choice the messaging from BoJ governor Ueda was not as hawkish as some had feared. While the intention to raise rates further if the economy and inflation performs as the BoJ expects, there were notable caveats both in principle related to the JPY, with Ueda noting “the risk of an inflation overshoot from rising import prices has diminished significantly. As such, we have some time to decide on policy.” There was also a lot of emphasis on the US economy and the Fed policy trajectory: “We still see U.S. soft landing as our main scenario. But U.S. data since early August has been somewhat weak, so risks have heightened somewhat.” He also continued to put a lot of emphasis on wage growth: a) “We are hopeful that next year’s wage negotiations will be strong. But we must scrutinise how overseas economic developments could affect corporate activity and profits”; b) “Wage hikes are broadening, but some smaller firms are
struggling. We want to carefully scrutinise whether wage hikes will broaden.” Per se, while there remains a chance of an October 31 rate hike, but markets would need to be largely stable and the JPY to weaken modestly, a December hike looks to be more likely.
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