Written Commentary
ADM Exceeds 5M Regenerative Agriculture Acreage Gal
September 9, 2025
FOMC vigil and Asia holidays to dampen trading volumes on busier day for data and ECB speakers; Indonesia & Singapore Trade to digest, German ZEW, Canada CPI, US Retail Sales, Industrial Production & NAHB Housing survey ahead; UK, Finland & US bond auctions
Germany ZEW: Expectations and Current Situation seen slipping amid stream of negative economic news
Canada CPI: energy prices and base effects to pace further fall on headline, core measures also seen lower, bolsters case for further BoC cuts
US Retail Sales: auto sales to weigh on headline, core measures seen posting modest gains
US Industrial Production: modest rebound expected after July fall, unexpected NY Fed Manufacturing strength implies some upside risks
US NAHB: slide in mortgage rates expected to offer modest boost, but affordability issues still a headwind
EVENTS PREVIEW
Given the FOMC vigil and the holidays in East Asia, it may be another subdued trading session, though the data and events schedule is very busy. There are trade data from India, Indonesia and Singapore, the German ZEW survey, Canadian CPI and above all US Retail Sales, Industrial Production, NAHB Housing Market Index and Business Inventories. There are a lot of ECB speakers, though most will be talking at the ECB Supervisory conference, but the fireside chat with BoC’s Rogers will be of interest, particularly after governor Macklem upped the rates ante at the weekend by suggesting the potential for deeper cuts. Govt bond supply takes the form of UK 30-yr, Finnish 5 & 10-yr and US 20-yr.
** Germany – September ZEW survey **
– The Expectations measure, which frequently mirrors the performance of the DAX over the preceding month, is for a change expected to diverge, edging down to 17.0 from 19.2, after collapsing in August from 41.8, presumably on the back of continued poor economic data and political paralysis, while Current Conditions are more understandably seen dipping again to -80.0 from -77.8. There is truly very little to be optimistic in terms of the German economy, even if the opposition CDU’s strong showing in opinion polls suggest a grand coalition would be possible at next year’s Federal elections.
** U.S.A. – August Retail Sales, Industrial Production & September NAHB Housing survey **
– While the NY Fed Manufacturing has had a very poor track record in terms of m/m volatility over the past 18 months, yesterday’s surge into positive territory is a reminder to trade cautiously in terms of Fed rate expectations, both for this week and over the next 6-12 months, as the US economy’s capacity to surprise has confounded a lot of the ‘recession imminent’ chatter over the past two years. Be that as it may Retail Sales are seen dropping -0.2% m/m thanks to another Auto Sales drop, though core measures are expected to rise 0.2%/0.3%, mirroring July’s solid if unspectacular increases. Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output are seen edging up 0.2% m/m recovering from drops of -0.6% and -0.3% m/m in August. The NAHB survey is expected to recover from 8-month low of 39 to 41, presumably predicated on lower mortgage rates, with the MBAs’ 30-yr effective rate having dropped to 6.45 from 7.0% at the end of July. That said, affordability headwinds due to high prices remains a factor, and some buyers may be staying their hand in anticipation of multiple Fed rate cuts.
** Canada – August CPI
– As noted above, BoC’s Macklem was not only touting inflation essentially being under control, with perhaps some risk of sub target readings, but also soft labour demand and downside growth risk. Today’s CPI is expected to see a flat m/m headline reading on the back of lower energy prices, which combined with benign base effects would push the y/y down sharply to 2.1% from 2.5%, with core measures seen down 0./0.3 ppts to 2.2% and 2.5% y/y respectively, with Shelter/Housing continuing to exercise some upward pressure, though the broad picture on inflation is continued disinflation.
To view the full report and to sign up for daily market commentary please email admisi@admisi.com
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 02547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2025 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
