Written Commentary
ADM Exceeds 5M Regenerative Agriculture Acreage Gal
September 9, 2025
Macroeconomics: The Week Ahead: 27 November – 1 December
- Marc Ostwald
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Written by Marc Ostwald, ADMISI’s Global Strategist & Chief Economist
The Week Ahead – Brief Preview:
The new week brings month end, while statistically the highlights are likely to include US PCE/Personal Income, Consumer Confidence, revised Q3 GDP, New and Pending Home Sales, House Prices and the Fed’s Beige Book; Eurozone CPI and numerous surveys, China NBS PMIs, UK credit aggregates and BRC Shop Prices, Indian Q3 GDP, Canadian Q3/monthly GDP and labour data, Australian and Brazilian inflation, and Japan’s Industrial Production and Retail Sales on a busy, but heavily backloaded schedule. It will also see the delayed OPEC+ meeting, plenty of Fed, ECB, BoE and BoJ speakers, as well as rate decision in New Zealand and South Korea (both seen on hold at 5.50% and 3.50% respectively). The COP28 United Nations Climate Change Conference gets underway in Dubai on Thursday, while the OECD publishes its Economic Outlook update. Outside of the OPEC+ meeting, commodities will look to the EU MARS crop bulletin and Brazil’s Corn, Soybean and Sugar crop updates, with China hosting a number of metals conferences, and Greece hosting the World LNG Summit.
US PCE deflators are expected to echo CPI with y/y rates slipping to 3.1% and 3.5%, Consumer Confidence is seen easing to 101.0 from 102.6, Q3 GDP SAAR may be revised fractionally higher to 5.0%, but the focus will be on Beige Book and Friday’s ISM for further signals on the extent of the Q4 slowdown.
French, German and Italian HICP are expected to slow sharply, offsetting an uptick in Spain, and thus allowing headline Eurozone CPI to slow to 2.7% y/y from 2.9%, and core to remain high but lower at 3.9% y/y from 4.2%.
China kicks off the week with Industrial Profits, but all eyes will be on the official NBS PMIs, with Manufacturing seen little changed at 49.6, while Services are expected to recover slightly to 51.q from 50.6. Japan’s Industrial Production is seen up modestly for a second month, while Retail Sales are forecast to rise 0.4% m/m after previously slipping -0.1%, while Q3 CapEx is expected to slow to 3.4% y/y from Q2 4.5%, with the outturn key to revisions to Q3 GDP, and Q3 Company Profits to accelerate to 13.8% y/y. Australia’s October CPI is forecast to slip back to 5.2% y/y after an unexpected spike up to 5.6% in September. Canada’s Q3 GDP is seen barely changed at 0.1% SAAR (Q2 -0.2%), with September monthly GDP flat m/m, while Friday’s Employment is expected to post another modest gain of 15K.
Canadian banks dominate a seasonally; light week for corporate earnings, with highlights according to Bloomberg News likely to include: Alimentation Couche-Tard, Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, Crowdstrike, Dell Technologies, Dollar Tree, Intuit, Kroger, Marvell Technology, Meituan, Naspers, Prosus, Royal Bank of Canada, Salesforce, Snowflake, Splunk, Synopsys, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Workday, Zscaler.
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