Written Commentary
ADM Exceeds 5M Regenerative Agriculture Acreage Gal
September 9, 2025
- Busy run of statistics to end the week, digesting weak Singapore GDP, MAS policy hold; German WPI slide, and high but lower than expected Swedish CPI; awaiting US Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Import Prices and Michigan Sentiment, IEA Oil Market Report, Fed and ECB speakers; financials get US Q1 earnings season under way
- US Retail Sales: headline seen falling again, core sales also seen falling after exaggerated strength in January and February, some downside risks
- US Import Prices: energy to drag headline lower again, ex-Petroleum seen posting very modest rise
- US Industrial Production: mining and utilities seen giving moderate boost, but surveys imply manufacturing fall
- US Michigan Sentiment: seen weak but little changed, rise in gasoline prices may drag
- US Q1 Earnings sector expectations; UK BoE Q1 Credit Conditions survey
EVENTS PREVIEW
Another busy day for major statistics to end the week, with Singapore advance Q1 GDP, Swedish CPI (lower than expected but still sky high) and final French and Spanish HICP, and German WPI (sliding sharply in y/y terms on energy price base effects) to digest, while ahead lie US Retail Sales, Import Prices, Industrial Production, Business Inventories and provisional Michigan Sentiment, accompanied by Canada’s Existing Home and Manufacturing Sales. The events schedule is relatively sparse with some more from ECB’s Nagel and of rather greater interest Fed’s Waller who is generally ahead of many of his FOMC peers in signalling shifts on the policy outlook, while oil markets look to the IEA’s monthly Oil Market Report, amid ongoing uncertainty about the demand outlook, and grains markets fret over the potential end of Black Sea Grain corridor. The usual run of major financials gets the US Q1 earnings season (see chart) underway today, via way of results from JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Blackrock and Wells Fargo, with United Health also on tap. Next week kicks off with China’s Q1 GDP and March activity and property sector indicators, with a light schedule in the US featuring housing indicators and the Fed’s Beige Book, while the UK looks to labour and inflation data, and Retail Sales. G7 flash PMIs are accompanied by a rash of national business and consumer surveys, while Japan and Canada look to CPI. A modest run of central bank speakers accompanies the ECB and RBA, while the US earnings season starts to kick into gear.
** U.S.A. – Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Import Prices & Michigan Sentiment **
Retail Sales are expected to post a second consecutive drop of -0.5% on headline and ex-Autos, and in contrast to February also to post a -0.4% m/m fall on the core ‘Control Group’ measure, the latter is perhaps more a case of mean reversion after seeing a gain of 9.0% annualized in January and February, which quite clearly overstated the actual underlying trend in consumer goods expenditure. It would also echo a fairly sharp deceleration in weekly Redbook Sales, and the risks look to be modestly to the downside of the consensus. Import Prices are likely to echo yesterday’s PPI with an expected headline fall of -0.1% m/m, while the ex-petroleum measure is seen unchanged, in both cases an undershoot relative to the consensus looks likely based on a read across from PPI, though the latter still saw some rather sticky readings on services sub-indices (above all healthcare and airfares). Industrial Production is seen up 0.2% m/m on the back of resources and utilities output, but Manufacturing Output is expected to dip 0.1% m/m, echoing a further contraction in the Manufacturing ISM and general weakness in other sector surveys. Last but not least, provisional Michigan Sentiment is expected to be little changed at 62.0 vs. March’s final 61.9, with the rise in retail gasoline prices probably of greater significance than the fall in mortgage rates, and suggesting some downside risk relative to the consensus.
To view the full report and to sign up for daily market commentary please email admisi@admisi.com
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 02547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2025 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
