Global Ag News 9.4
TODAY—COMMITMENT OF TRADERS
Overnight trade has SRW Wheat up roughly 2 cents, HRW up 2; HRS Wheat down 1, Corn is up 5 cents; Soybeans up 2; Soymeal up $1.50, and Soyoil up 10 points.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 7 cents; HRW up 6; HRS up 8; Corn is down 1 cent; Soybeans up 18;
Soymeal up $5.00, and; Soyoil up 15 points. Crushing margins are down 6 cents at $0.90; Oil share is unchanged at 34%.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 65 yuan in soybeans, up 13 in Corn, up 6 in Soymeal, unchanged in Soyoil, and down 38 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were down 31 ringgit at 2,860 (basis November) at midsession on upcoming higher stock forecast reports.
U.S. Weather Forecast: The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Midwest is still mixed between the models as far as coverage but, both do have a strong cold front moving through the region Monday through Thursday. Putting the models together, it’s forecasted for some good rains falling in eastern IA, southeastern MN, most of WI, northern IL, and northwest IN. Total rainfall in the rest of the Midwest would be light. Things look to quiet down by the end of next week. Temps will be average to below average this weekend falling to below average next week. The 11 to 16 day outlook for the Midwest has average temps and below average precip.
The player sheet had funds net sellers of 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; sold 16,000 Corn; bought 4,000 Soybeans; net bought 3,000 lots of Soymeal, and; sold 3,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 20,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 63,000 Corn; net long 163,000 Soybeans; net long 15,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 72,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 5,600 contracts; HRW Wheat up 845; Corn down 2,700; Soybeans up 5,000 contracts; Soymeal down 250 lots, and; Soyoil down 365.
Deliveries were 71 Soymeal; ZERO Soyoil; ZERO Rice; 220 Corn; ZERO HRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; 8 Soybeans; 11 SRW Wheat, and; 117 HRS Wheat.
There were changes in registrations (Corn up 220; Soyoil down 50; Soymeal down 103)—Registrations total 95 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 220; Soybeans 23; Soyoil 2,431 lots; Soymeal 408; Rice ZERO; HRW Wheat 147, and; HRS 1,351.
Tender Activity—Ethiopia seeks 80,000t optional-origin wheat—Egypt bought 55,000t Russian wheat—Philippines bought 110,000t optional-origin feed wheat—Egypt bought 47,500t soyoil from local suppliers—
For the week ended August 27th, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 9% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 1% with the USDA forecasting a 1% increase on the year
For the week ended August 27th, U.S. Corn sales are running 11% behind a year ago, shipments 13% behind with the USDA forecasting a 13% decline.
For the week ended August 27th, U.S. Soybean sales are running 3% behind a year ago, shipments down 5% with the USDA forecasting a 6% decline on the year
Saskatchewan crop report – Reuters News: Harvest continues to quickly advance thanks to warm and dry weather in most areas of the province; crops are rapidly drying down and the majority of producers are now in the field; twenty-eight per cent of the provincial crop is in the bin, up from 15 per cent last week and well ahead of the five-year (2015-2019) average of 22 per cent for this time of year; an additional 27 per cent of the crop is now swathed or ready to straight-cut.
Rains over recent days brought relief to parched wheat fields in central Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said, although some damage to yields was expected to be irreversible after months of extraordinarily dry weather; Argentine growers have planted 6.5 million hectares (16.1 million acres) with wheat, to be harvested in December and January; exchange analysts cut their original sowing estimate of 6.8 million hectares earlier this season due to the dryness
Russian state-controlled grain trader United Grain Company, which has transformed itself into a big exporter within a year, is eyeing trade with Algeria and aiming to boost sales to Bangladesh while maintaining sales to Egypt’s state buyer this season; its strategy signals tougher competition for foreign and local veterans of Russian grain trade as UGC’s co-owner, state-controlled bank VTB has also become a large grain exporter
Ukraine’s sunflower oil producers’ association said on Friday it could cut its outlook for the 2020 sunflower seed crop depending on weather conditions, but would maintain its forecast of 15 million tons for now; Ukraine’s economy ministry said this week that drought across the country would cut the sunseed harvest to 14 million tons in 2020 from 15.3 million tons in 2019.
The condition of grain maize in France declined slightly in the week to Aug. 31, with 61% of crops rated good or excellent compared with 62% the previous week, farm office FranceAgriMer said; the rating was on a par with the same week last year
Euronext wheat ended little changed on Thursday, consolidating below an earlier seven-week high as a rally in U.S. grain futures stalled; benchmark December milling wheat settled unchanged on the day at 188.00 euros ($222.55) a ton; it earlier rose to 189.00 euros, a new high since mid-July, before paring gains in the face of chart resistance and an easing in U.S. futures.
An extended period of dry weather has lowered Bulgaria’s wheat crop to 4.6 million tons this year from 6.1 million tons harvested in 2019, the agriculture ministry said; the average wheat yield in the Black Sea country stood at 3.9 tons per hectare, down 24% from a year ago.
Beirut port’s capacity to handle wheat and other bulk cereal imports has collapsed to about a fifth or less of its level before a massive blast smashed its grain silos and other facilities, a senior U.N. official said; but the country director for the World Food Programme (WFP) said he did not see Lebanon heading towards a food crisis, although he said his organization was keeping a close eye and was ready to step in if necessary.
Asia Grains-Rising wheat prices curb demand, pushing millers to sidelines.
Malaysia’s August-end palm oil stocks seen rising 5% as exports plummet.
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