Written Commentary
ADM Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results
November 4, 2025
London Wheat Report
Another day of stronger volumes across London with over 1,300 lots going through the front month (Nov-25) contract and just under 1,300 lots going through the May-26 contract. These volumes appear to have originated mainly in the Nov25/May26 spread, which posted a cumulative volume of 1,213 lots settling at £-11.75. At these levels, it would appear that market participants were price takers, though, as both contracts continued their march further down into the red.
Both Matif and Chicago also spent most of the day languishing in the red, both pressured by an upward revision to Russia’s wheat crop forecast and the latest talks to end the war in Ukraine. In the US, corn eased as reports of strong yield projections from a US Midwest field tour maintained supply pressure. Yesterday, Russia’s IKAR consultancy reportedly raised its 2025 wheat crop forecast to 85.5 mmt from 84.5 mmt, further supporting expectations that the world’s biggest exporter is set for a large harvest despite a less sure start.
In other news, a Chinese-controlled trade house has booked a cargo of about 50,000 metric tonnes of new-crop Australian canola just days after Beijing imposed temporary levies on top supplier Canada. This marks China’s first import from Australia since 2020, when Australia, the world’s second-largest canola exporter, was locked out of the Chinese market. This was reportedly over issues with phytosanitary restrictions aimed at preventing the spread of fungal plant disease.
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